Brazil · Serie A

Mirassol vs Botafogo

Kick-off 21:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Mirassol 60.5% Draw 22.2% Botafogo 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Mirassol: 6 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Mirassol

D W L D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Botafogo

W D D L L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Mirassol win60.5%

Draw22.2%

Botafogo win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals85.4%

Over 2.5 goals64.2%

Over 3.5 goals42.2%

Both teams to score61.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.0%

Home Team to Score

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.5%

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Draw No Bet - Home76.9%

Both Halves Over 0.564.9%

Goal in Both Halves64.9%

Home Win61.6%

Draw or Away (X2)38.3%

Draw No Bet - Away23.1%

Draw19.9%

Away Win18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal12.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.2%

Over 1.5 Goals84.2%

Under 4.5 Goals76.1%

Over 2.5 Goals64.2%

2-4 Goals60.3%

Under 3.5 Goals57.9%

1-3 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.1%

4+ Goals42.1%

2-3 Goals42.1%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals35.8%

1-2 Goals32.1%

Over 4.5 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.0%

Under 1.5 Goals15.8%

Over 5.5 Goals11.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.8%

Away Team to Score67.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Home Clean Sheet32.6%

Home Win to Nil29.0%

Away Clean Sheet11.2%

Away Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.8%

Away Over 0.567.3%

Home Over 1.564.3%

Home Over 2.537.4%

Home 3+ Goals37.4%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 032.6%

Away Over 1.530.8%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 124.5%

Away Exactly 220.5%

Home Exactly 011.2%

Away Over 2.510.4%

Away 3+ Goals10.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.7%

Home to win by 122.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.4%

Home to win by 3+20.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 24.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.550.8%

Home & Over 2.544.9%

Home & BTTS32.7%

Home & No BTTS29.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.8%

Home & Under 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.4%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Over 2.512.1%

Away & BTTS10.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Away & No BTTS7.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Away & Under 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.5%

HT Under 1.556.1%

HT Home Win46.4%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.543.9%

HT/FT Home/Home40.4%

HT Draw35.2%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.7%

HT Under 0.522.5%

HT Away Win18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.8%

HT/FT Away/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners73.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners64.2%

Over 9.5 Corners62.2%

Under 11.5 Corners61.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 10.5 Corners50.0%

Under 10.5 Corners50.0%

Away Most Corners47.9%

Home Most Corners39.8%

Over 11.5 Corners38.1%

Under 9.5 Corners37.8%

Under 8.5 Corners26.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.4%

Over 3.5 Cards68.5%

Under 5.5 Cards67.4%

Under 4.5 Cards50.1%

Over 4.5 Cards49.9%

Over 5.5 Cards32.6%

Under 3.5 Cards31.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.7%

Under 2.5 Cards15.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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