Brazil · Serie A

Mirassol vs Flamengo

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Mirassol 30.5% Draw 29.7% Flamengo 39.8%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Mirassol: 10 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.6%

Exact-score model probability

Mirassol

L W D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Flamengo

W D D W L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Mirassol win30.5%

Draw29.7%

Flamengo win39.8%

Over 1.5 goals74.2%

Over 2.5 goals47.2%

Over 3.5 goals25.6%

Both teams to score53.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

91.8%

Under 4.5 Goals

88.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)67.8%

Home or Draw (1X)58.6%

Draw No Bet - Away56.3%

Both Halves Over 0.551.7%

Goal in Both Halves51.7%

Draw No Bet - Home43.7%

Away Win41.4%

Home Win32.2%

Draw26.5%

Exactly 1 Goal19.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.4%

Over 0.5 Goals92.3%

Under 4.5 Goals88.2%

Under 3.5 Goals74.4%

Over 1.5 Goals72.6%

1-3 Goals66.7%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 2.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals47.2%

2-3 Goals46.9%

1-2 Goals45.1%

3-4 Goals35.5%

Under 1.5 Goals27.4%

Over 3.5 Goals25.6%

4+ Goals25.6%

Exactly 2 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals11.8%

Under 0.5 Goals7.7%

Exactly 0 Goals7.7%

Over 5.5 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score74.8%

Home Team to Score69.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.1%

Away Clean Sheet30.6%

Home Clean Sheet25.2%

Away Win to Nil22.9%

Home Win to Nil17.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.574.8%

Home Over 0.569.4%

Away Over 1.540.1%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Over 1.533.2%

Home Exactly 030.6%

Away Exactly 025.2%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 221.5%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Over 2.511.7%

Home 3+ Goals11.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 122.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 118.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.0%

Home to win by 29.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.1%

Away to win by 3+7.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.3%

Home to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.540.2%

BTTS & Over 2.539.4%

Away & Over 2.523.4%

Away & No BTTS22.9%

Draw & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Away & BTTS18.5%

Away & Under 2.518.0%

Home & Over 2.517.6%

Home & No BTTS17.5%

Home & BTTS14.7%

Home & Under 2.514.5%

BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.5%

HT Under 1.567.9%

HT Draw42.9%

2nd Half More Goals42.9%

HT Over 1.532.1%

HT Under 0.531.5%

HT Away Win31.4%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.3%

HT Home Win25.7%

HT/FT Away/Away24.5%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT/FT Home/Home18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners91.8%

Under 10.5 Corners85.9%

Under 9.5 Corners77.2%

Under 8.5 Corners65.6%

Away Most Corners61.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners45.2%

Over 8.5 Corners34.4%

Home Most Corners25.5%

Over 9.5 Corners22.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners20.6%

Over 10.5 Corners14.1%

Over 11.5 Corners8.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards94.3%

Under 4.5 Cards86.2%

Under 3.5 Cards71.2%

Over 2.5 Cards50.8%

Under 2.5 Cards49.2%

Over 3.5 Cards28.8%

Over 4.5 Cards13.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.8%

Over 5.5 Cards5.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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