Brazil · Serie A

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Mirassol 76.2% Draw 16.3% Sao Paulo 7.5%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 49%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Mirassol: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Mirassol

W L D W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Sao Paulo

W W L L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Mirassol win76.2%

Draw16.3%

Sao Paulo win7.5%

Over 1.5 goals85.5%

Over 2.5 goals64.8%

Over 3.5 goals42.7%

Both teams to score49.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.4%

Draw No Bet - Home90.1%

Home or Away (12)85.3%

Home Win76.9%

Both Halves Over 0.565.3%

Goal in Both Halves65.3%

Draw or Away (X2)22.9%

Draw14.5%

Exactly 1 Goal11.9%

Draw No Bet - Away9.9%

Away Win8.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.0%

Over 1.5 Goals84.5%

Under 4.5 Goals75.7%

Over 2.5 Goals64.7%

2-4 Goals60.2%

Under 3.5 Goals57.3%

1-3 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.7%

4+ Goals42.7%

2-3 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.3%

1-2 Goals31.6%

Over 4.5 Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.8%

Under 1.5 Goals15.5%

Over 5.5 Goals12.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.4%

Away Team to Score52.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.5%

Home Clean Sheet47.5%

Home Win to Nil43.9%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.4%

Home Over 1.573.0%

Away Over 0.552.4%

Home Over 2.547.9%

Home 3+ Goals47.9%

Away Exactly 047.5%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 119.4%

Away Over 1.517.1%

Away Exactly 213.1%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Away Over 2.54.0%

Away 3+ Goals4.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.7%

Home to win by 3+33.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 221.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.555.8%

Home & No BTTS43.9%

BTTS & Over 2.541.6%

Home & BTTS33.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.0%

Home & Under 2.521.2%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

Draw & Under 2.510.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Away & Over 2.54.8%

Away & BTTS4.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Away & No BTTS3.9%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.7%

HT Home Win57.5%

HT Under 1.555.7%

HT/FT Home/Home53.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.3%

HT Draw31.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.6%

HT Under 0.522.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.0%

HT Both Teams Score19.6%

HT Away Win10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners81.9%

Under 10.5 Corners72.6%

Away Most Corners63.1%

Under 9.5 Corners60.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 8.5 Corners52.2%

Under 8.5 Corners47.8%

Over 9.5 Corners39.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 10.5 Corners27.4%

Home Most Corners24.8%

Over 11.5 Corners18.1%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards89.8%

Under 4.5 Cards78.7%

Over 2.5 Cards61.3%

Under 3.5 Cards61.0%

Over 3.5 Cards39.0%

Under 2.5 Cards38.7%

Over 4.5 Cards21.3%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.7%

Over 5.5 Cards10.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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