Brazil · Serie A

Mirassol vs Vitoria

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Mirassol 76.0% Draw 17.2% Vitoria 6.8%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 14%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Vitoria: 5 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14%

Exact-score model probability

Mirassol

W L D D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

Vitoria

W L W L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 2:10 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Mirassol win76.0%

Draw17.2%

Vitoria win6.8%

Over 1.5 goals81.5%

Over 2.5 goals58.4%

Over 3.5 goals35.9%

Both teams to score43.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.4%

Home Team to Score

90.9%

Home Over 0.5

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home90.8%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home Win76.9%

Both Halves Over 0.560.4%

Goal in Both Halves60.4%

Draw or Away (X2)23.0%

Draw15.3%

Exactly 1 Goal14.6%

Draw No Bet - Away9.2%

Away Win7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals81.1%

Over 1.5 Goals80.5%

Under 3.5 Goals64.1%

2-4 Goals61.5%

1-3 Goals59.2%

Over 2.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals44.6%

Under 2.5 Goals41.7%

3-4 Goals39.4%

1-2 Goals36.8%

Over 3.5 Goals35.9%

4+ Goals35.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.2%

Under 1.5 Goals19.5%

Over 4.5 Goals18.9%

Over 5.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.8%

Home Clean Sheet53.5%

Home Win to Nil48.7%

Away Team to Score46.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.2%

Away Clean Sheet9.0%

Away Win to Nil4.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.9%

Home Over 1.569.2%

Away Exactly 053.5%

Away Over 0.546.4%

Home Over 2.543.1%

Home 3+ Goals43.1%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 121.7%

Away Over 1.513.0%

Away Exactly 210.4%

Home Exactly 09.0%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.6%

Home to win by 3+31.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 222.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 15.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.551.3%

Home & No BTTS48.7%

BTTS & Over 2.535.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.4%

Home & BTTS28.2%

Home & Under 2.525.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.3%

Draw & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & BTTS10.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Away & No BTTS4.2%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Away & Over 2.53.8%

Away & BTTS3.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.4%

HT Under 1.560.4%

HT Home Win56.5%

HT/FT Home/Home53.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.7%

HT Over 1.539.6%

HT Draw33.9%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.6%

Equal Goals Each Half23.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.0%

HT Both Teams Score16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.7%

HT Away Win9.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.0%

Over 8.5 Corners64.3%

Under 10.5 Corners60.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners56.7%

Over 9.5 Corners51.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners51.5%

Under 9.5 Corners48.4%

Away Most Corners47.2%

Home Most Corners39.9%

Over 10.5 Corners39.1%

Under 8.5 Corners35.7%

Over 11.5 Corners28.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards82.9%

Over 2.5 Cards71.6%

Under 4.5 Cards68.6%

Over 3.5 Cards50.8%

Under 3.5 Cards49.2%

Over 4.5 Cards31.4%

Under 2.5 Cards28.4%

Over 5.5 Cards17.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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