Italy · Serie B

Modena vs Avellino

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Modena 51.6% Draw 37.6% Avellino 10.8%

Over 2.5 - 16% BTTS - 19%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 26.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

26.4%

Exact-score model probability

Modena

L L W

Form 1-0-2 Goals 2:3 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

Avellino

L W L

Form 1-0-2 Goals 1:4 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

Modena 0wins ·0 draws ·Avellino 1wins

Modena 0-1 AvellinoMay 8, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Modena win51.6%

Draw37.6%

Avellino win10.8%

Over 1.5 goals40.4%

Over 2.5 goals15.6%

Over 3.5 goals4.9%

Both teams to score19.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.1%

Draw No Bet - Home81.6%

Home or Away (12)64.7%

Home Win52.7%

Draw or Away (X2)47.3%

Draw35.3%

Exactly 1 Goal35.0%

Both Halves Over 0.524.0%

Goal in Both Halves24.0%

Draw No Bet - Away18.4%

Away Win11.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.7%

Under 4.5 Goals98.7%

Under 3.5 Goals95.1%

Under 2.5 Goals84.4%

Over 0.5 Goals74.2%

1-3 Goals69.3%

Under 1.5 Goals60.7%

1-2 Goals58.6%

Total Goals Even53.3%

Total Goals Odd46.7%

Over 1.5 Goals39.3%

2-4 Goals38.0%

2-3 Goals34.4%

Under 0.5 Goals25.8%

Exactly 0 Goals25.8%

Exactly 2 Goals23.7%

Over 2.5 Goals15.6%

3-4 Goals14.3%

Exactly 3 Goals10.7%

Over 3.5 Goals4.9%

4+ Goals4.9%

Over 4.5 Goals1.3%

Over 5.5 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)81.9%

Home Clean Sheet71.7%

Home Team to Score64.0%

Home Win to Nil45.9%

Away Clean Sheet36.0%

Away Team to Score28.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)18.1%

Away Win to Nil10.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 071.7%

Home Over 0.564.0%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 036.0%

Away Over 0.528.3%

Home Over 1.527.2%

Away Exactly 123.9%

Home Exactly 218.8%

Home Over 2.58.4%

Home 3+ Goals8.4%

Away Over 1.54.5%

Away Exactly 24.0%

Away Over 2.50.5%

Away 3+ Goals0.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw31.1%

Home to win by 131.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 110.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.6%

Home to win by 3+6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.575.6%

Home & No BTTS45.9%

Home & Under 2.539.8%

Draw & Under 2.534.6%

Home & Over 2.512.9%

Away & No BTTS10.2%

Away & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & BTTS9.6%

BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Home & BTTS6.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.2%

Away & Over 2.51.9%

Away & BTTS1.7%

Draw & Over 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.587.5%

HT Draw58.2%

HT Under 0.554.3%

HT Over 0.545.7%

Equal Goals Each Half38.9%

2nd Half More Goals34.7%

HT Home Win32.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw30.5%

HT/FT Home/Home30.1%

1st Half More Goals26.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.8%

HT Over 1.512.5%

HT Away Win9.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT Both Teams Score5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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