Italy · Serie B

Modena vs Empoli

Kick-off 18:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Modena 34.9% Draw 28.8% Empoli 36.3%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Empoli: 3 points versus 10 across the last 3 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.2%

Exact-score model probability

Modena

L L W

Form 1-0-2 Goals 2:3 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

Empoli

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Modena win34.9%

Draw28.8%

Empoli win36.3%

Over 1.5 goals77.2%

Over 2.5 goals51.3%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score57.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

85.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

83.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

83.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.3%

Draw or Away (X2)63.5%

Home or Draw (1X)62.1%

Both Halves Over 0.555.0%

Goal in Both Halves55.0%

Draw No Bet - Away51.0%

Draw No Bet - Home49.0%

Away Win37.9%

Home Win36.5%

Draw25.7%

Exactly 1 Goal17.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.1%

Over 0.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals85.9%

Over 1.5 Goals75.7%

Under 3.5 Goals70.8%

1-3 Goals64.2%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.7%

2-3 Goals46.4%

1-2 Goals42.1%

3-4 Goals37.2%

Over 3.5 Goals29.2%

4+ Goals29.2%

Under 1.5 Goals24.3%

Exactly 2 Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.1%

Under 0.5 Goals6.5%

Exactly 0 Goals6.5%

Over 5.5 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score74.8%

Home Team to Score74.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.6%

Away Clean Sheet25.9%

Home Clean Sheet25.2%

Away Win to Nil19.4%

Home Win to Nil18.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.574.8%

Home Over 0.574.0%

Away Over 1.540.1%

Home Over 1.539.0%

Home Exactly 135.0%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Exactly 025.9%

Away Exactly 025.2%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Over 2.515.4%

Home 3+ Goals15.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away83.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.4%

Away to win by 120.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 120.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.1%

Away to win by 211.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 210.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.3%

Away to win by 3+6.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.9%

Home to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.5%

Away & Over 2.522.7%

Home & Over 2.521.7%

Away & No BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.7%

Home & No BTTS18.6%

Away & BTTS18.5%

Home & BTTS17.8%

Away & Under 2.515.2%

Home & Under 2.514.7%

BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.7%

HT Under 1.565.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.5%

HT Draw41.4%

HT Over 1.534.7%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Away Win29.7%

HT Under 0.529.3%

HT Home Win28.9%

Equal Goals Each Half25.4%

HT/FT Away/Away22.3%

HT/FT Home/Home21.4%

HT Both Teams Score21.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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