UEFA Europa Conference League

Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Monaco 63.9% Draw 19.7% Gornik Zabrze 16.4%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 10 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Monaco

W W L L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Gornik Zabrze

L D L D L

Form 0-2-3 Goals 4:7 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 1.4

Head to head · last 1

Monaco 1wins ·0 draws ·Gornik Zabrze 0wins

Monaco 3-2 Gornik ZabrzeAug 20, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monaco win63.9%

Draw19.7%

Gornik Zabrze win16.4%

Over 1.5 goals89.9%

Over 2.5 goals72.4%

Over 3.5 goals51.8%

Both teams to score66.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.8%

Home Over 0.5

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.6%

Home or Away (12)82.1%

Draw No Bet - Home78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.571.3%

Goal in Both Halves71.3%

Home Win64.8%

Draw or Away (X2)35.1%

Draw No Bet - Away21.1%

Draw17.8%

Away Win17.3%

Exactly 1 Goal8.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals88.8%

Under 5.5 Goals82.3%

Over 2.5 Goals72.3%

Under 4.5 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals56.5%

Over 3.5 Goals51.7%

4+ Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.3%

1-3 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.1%

Over 4.5 Goals32.3%

Under 2.5 Goals27.7%

1-2 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Over 5.5 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.8%

Away Team to Score71.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.6%

Home Clean Sheet28.7%

Home Win to Nil26.3%

Away Clean Sheet8.1%

Away Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.8%

Home Over 1.571.4%

Away Over 0.571.2%

Home Over 2.545.8%

Home 3+ Goals45.8%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.535.4%

Away Exactly 028.7%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 120.4%

Away Over 2.513.1%

Away 3+ Goals13.1%

Home Exactly 08.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away56.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)43.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home43.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.8%

Home to win by 3+24.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.3%

Home to win by 121.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.6%

Away to win by 110.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.1%

Home & Over 2.551.6%

Home & BTTS38.4%

Home & No BTTS26.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.2%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.2%

Home & Under 2.513.2%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS11.5%

Draw & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Away & No BTTS5.8%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.6%

HT Over 1.550.4%

HT Home Win49.6%

HT Under 1.549.6%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT/FT Home/Home43.6%

HT Draw32.1%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score29.1%

Equal Goals Each Half21.1%

HT Under 0.518.4%

HT Away Win18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT/FT Away/Away9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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