France · Ligue 1

Monaco vs Lens

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Monaco 43.9% Draw 25.1% Lens 31.0%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Monaco

D W W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Lens

D W L L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:10 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Monaco 2wins ·1 draws ·Lens 2wins

Monaco 3-2 LensFeb 21, 2026

Monaco 1-4 LensNov 8, 2025

Monaco 0-4 LensMay 17, 2025

Monaco 1-1 LensSep 1, 2024

Monaco 3-2 LensFeb 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monaco win43.9%

Draw25.1%

Lens win31.0%

Over 1.5 goals81.8%

Over 2.5 goals87.0%

Over 3.5 goals36.8%

Both teams to score84.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

90.8%

Away Over 0.5

90.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)62.7%

Home or Draw (1X)56.3%

Draw No Bet - Away54.0%

Draw No Bet - Home46.0%

Away Win43.6%

Home Win37.2%

Draw19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals83.7%

Under 5.5 Goals68.5%

Over 3.5 Goals67.5%

4+ Goals67.5%

Under 4.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals48.8%

2-4 Goals45.5%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals32.5%

Over 5.5 Goals31.5%

1-3 Goals31.4%

2-3 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals16.3%

Exactly 3 Goals16.2%

1-2 Goals15.1%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.8%

Home Team to Score89.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.1%

Away Clean Sheet10.9%

Away Win to Nil9.9%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 0.589.0%

Away Over 1.568.9%

Home Over 1.564.9%

Away Over 2.542.8%

Away 3+ Goals42.8%

Home Over 2.538.1%

Home 3+ Goals38.1%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 124.1%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 010.9%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 116.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.3%

Away to win by 3+13.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 212.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 210.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.0%

Home to win by 3+10.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.6%

Away & Over 2.538.4%

Away & BTTS33.7%

Home & Over 2.532.5%

Home & BTTS29.1%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Away & No BTTS9.9%

Home & No BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Under 2.55.2%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.5%

HT Over 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Both Teams Score41.6%

HT Under 1.538.6%

HT Away Win37.0%

HT Home Win32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.1%

HT/FT Away/Away27.7%

HT/FT Home/Home23.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT Under 0.512.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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