France · Ligue 1

Monaco vs Lille

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Monaco 41.9% Draw 27.9% Lille 30.2%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Monaco

L D W D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Lille

L D L W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Monaco 1wins ·1 draws ·Lille 3wins

Monaco 0-1 LilleMay 10, 2026

Monaco 0-1 LilleAug 24, 2025

Monaco 1-2 LilleFeb 22, 2025

Monaco 0-0 LilleOct 18, 2024

Monaco 1-0 LilleApr 24, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monaco win41.9%

Draw27.9%

Lille win30.2%

Over 1.5 goals71.5%

Over 2.5 goals73.9%

Over 3.5 goals24.0%

Both teams to score69.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.3%

Home or Draw (1X)72.1%

Draw No Bet - Home63.5%

Both Halves Over 0.559.3%

Goal in Both Halves59.3%

Draw or Away (X2)51.6%

Home Win48.4%

Draw No Bet - Away36.5%

Away Win27.8%

Draw23.7%

Exactly 1 Goal15.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.9%

Under 4.5 Goals82.0%

Over 1.5 Goals79.6%

Under 3.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.3%

Over 2.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.0%

Under 2.5 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals39.0%

1-2 Goals37.9%

Over 3.5 Goals34.6%

4+ Goals34.6%

Exactly 2 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.4%

Over 4.5 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.1%

Away Team to Score71.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.4%

Home Clean Sheet28.6%

Home Win to Nil23.5%

Away Clean Sheet17.9%

Away Win to Nil12.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.1%

Away Over 0.571.3%

Home Over 1.551.3%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.535.5%

Home Exactly 130.8%

Away Exactly 028.6%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Over 2.524.8%

Home 3+ Goals24.8%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 017.9%

Away Over 2.513.2%

Away 3+ Goals13.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 122.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.3%

Home to win by 3+11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.5%

Home & Over 2.532.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.0%

Home & BTTS24.9%

Home & No BTTS23.5%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Away & Over 2.517.4%

Home & Under 2.516.4%

Draw & Under 2.516.2%

Away & BTTS15.1%

Away & No BTTS12.8%

BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

Away & Under 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.7%

HT Under 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT Draw39.0%

HT Over 1.538.6%

HT Home Win36.9%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home29.9%

HT Under 0.526.3%

Equal Goals Each Half24.1%

HT Away Win24.0%

HT Both Teams Score23.2%

HT/FT Away/Away16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions