France · Ligue 1

Monaco vs Marseille

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Monaco 43.2% Draw 23.4% Marseille 33.4%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Monaco 2 wins, 1 draws, Marseille 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.9%

Exact-score model probability

Monaco

W W L L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Marseille

W W W L D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Monaco 2wins ·1 draws ·Marseille 2wins

Monaco 2-1 MarseilleApr 5, 2026

Monaco 0-1 MarseilleDec 14, 2025

Monaco 3-0 MarseilleApr 12, 2025

Monaco 1-2 MarseilleDec 1, 2024

Monaco 2-2 MarseilleJan 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monaco win43.2%

Draw23.4%

Marseille win33.4%

Over 1.5 goals87.4%

Over 2.5 goals78.9%

Over 3.5 goals47.0%

Both teams to score73.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.9%

Home Team to Score

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Home or Draw (1X)76.8%

Both Halves Over 0.572.3%

Goal in Both Halves72.3%

Draw No Bet - Home71.4%

Home Win57.5%

Draw or Away (X2)42.4%

Draw No Bet - Away28.6%

Away Win23.1%

Draw19.3%

Exactly 1 Goal8.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.5%

Under 5.5 Goals81.1%

Over 2.5 Goals73.6%

Under 4.5 Goals66.1%

2-4 Goals55.6%

Over 3.5 Goals53.3%

4+ Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals46.7%

1-3 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.2%

Over 4.5 Goals33.9%

Under 2.5 Goals26.4%

1-2 Goals24.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals15.9%

Under 1.5 Goals10.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.6%

Away Team to Score76.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.3%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Home Win to Nil20.9%

Away Clean Sheet9.3%

Away Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.6%

Away Over 0.576.9%

Home Over 1.568.4%

Away Over 1.543.1%

Home Over 2.542.2%

Home 3+ Goals42.2%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Over 2.518.3%

Away 3+ Goals18.3%

Home Exactly 09.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.9%

Home to win by 120.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.7%

Home to win by 3+19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.6%

Away to win by 3+3.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.2%

Home & Over 2.546.4%

Home & BTTS36.7%

Home & No BTTS20.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.8%

Away & Over 2.517.6%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Away & BTTS15.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.4%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Draw & Under 2.59.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Away & No BTTS7.2%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.2%

HT Over 1.551.5%

HT Under 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Home Win44.8%

HT/FT Home/Home37.7%

HT Draw32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Both Teams Score31.7%

HT Away Win22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT/FT Away/Away13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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