France · Ligue 1

Monaco vs Toulouse

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Monaco 59.6% Draw 21.9% Toulouse 18.4%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 16 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Monaco

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Toulouse

W D L D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Monaco 2wins ·2 draws ·Toulouse 1wins

Monaco 2-2 ToulouseApr 25, 2026

Monaco 1-0 ToulouseOct 25, 2025

Monaco 1-1 ToulouseMar 7, 2025

Monaco 2-0 ToulouseDec 7, 2024

Monaco 1-2 ToulouseFeb 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monaco win59.6%

Draw21.9%

Toulouse win18.4%

Over 1.5 goals83.0%

Over 2.5 goals89.2%

Over 3.5 goals38.9%

Both teams to score78.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

85.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

84.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

84.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Home or Draw (1X)83.1%

Draw No Bet - Home80.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.2%

Goal in Both Halves77.2%

Home Win67.0%

Draw or Away (X2)32.7%

Draw No Bet - Away19.9%

Away Win16.6%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.4%

Over 2.5 Goals79.6%

Under 5.5 Goals74.4%

Over 3.5 Goals61.5%

4+ Goals61.5%

Under 4.5 Goals57.8%

2-4 Goals50.2%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals42.2%

Under 3.5 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

1-3 Goals36.8%

2-3 Goals30.9%

Over 5.5 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals20.4%

1-2 Goals18.7%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals12.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.0%

Away Team to Score75.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.8%

Home Clean Sheet24.2%

Home Win to Nil22.8%

Away Clean Sheet5.7%

Away Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.0%

Home Over 1.577.6%

Away Over 0.575.5%

Home Over 2.554.1%

Home 3+ Goals54.1%

Away Over 1.541.3%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 224.3%

Away Exactly 024.2%

Home Exactly 223.4%

Away Over 2.517.0%

Away 3+ Goals17.0%

Home Exactly 116.4%

Home Exactly 05.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.8%

Home to win by 3+28.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.8%

Away to win by 19.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.5%

Home & Over 2.557.3%

Home & BTTS44.2%

Home & No BTTS22.8%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.1%

Away & Over 2.513.3%

Away & BTTS12.3%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.3%

Away & Under 2.53.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.4%

HT Over 1.557.3%

HT Home Win52.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT/FT Home/Home46.2%

HT Under 1.542.7%

HT Both Teams Score34.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Away Win18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.514.6%

HT/FT Away/Away9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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