Mexico · Liga MX

Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis

Kick-off 03:10 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

Monterrey 85.6% Draw 8.4% Atletico San Luis 6.0%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Monterrey: 9 points versus 3 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.40 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Monterrey

L W W L W

Form 3-0-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2.4 Conceded/game 1.4

Atletico San Luis

D L D D L

Form 0-3-2 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monterrey win85.6%

Draw8.4%

Atletico San Luis win6.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.1%

Over 3.5 goals83.3%

Both teams to score74.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.2%

Home or Draw (1X)90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.589.3%

Goal in Both Halves89.3%

Home or Away (12)88.4%

Home Win82.4%

Draw or Away (X2)13.6%

Draw7.6%

Draw No Bet - Away6.8%

Away Win6.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals89.3%

Over 3.5 Goals79.9%

4+ Goals79.9%

Over 4.5 Goals66.1%

Under 5.5 Goals50.2%

Over 5.5 Goals49.8%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals33.9%

2-4 Goals28.0%

3-4 Goals23.2%

Under 3.5 Goals20.1%

1-3 Goals15.8%

2-3 Goals14.1%

Under 2.5 Goals10.7%

Exactly 3 Goals9.4%

1-2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score72.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.5%

Home Clean Sheet23.7%

Home Win to Nil23.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.572.3%

Away Over 1.539.2%

Away Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 023.7%

Away Exactly 223.2%

Away Over 2.516.0%

Away 3+ Goals16.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)84.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away72.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)58.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away58.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.5%

Home to win by 3+54.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away41.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home37.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away25.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 13.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.4%

BTTS & Over 2.569.7%

Home & BTTS59.0%

Home & No BTTS23.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.6%

Draw & BTTS7.3%

Draw & Over 2.55.6%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS5.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Under 2.54.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.9%

HT Over 1.574.3%

HT Home Win70.2%

HT/FT Home/Home67.0%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Both Teams Score40.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.7%

HT Draw19.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win10.5%

HT Under 0.57.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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