Mexico · Liga MX

Monterrey vs Cruz Azul

● LIVE 45' · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Monterrey 53.8% Draw 15.4% Cruz Azul 30.8%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 93%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Monterrey win at 53.8%.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Monterrey win

53.8%

1X2 model probability

Draw

15.4%

1X2 model probability

Cruz Azul win

30.8%

1X2 model probability

Monterrey

D L L W W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Cruz Azul

W W W L L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monterrey win53.8%

Draw15.4%

Cruz Azul win30.8%

Over 1.5 goals99.4%

Over 2.5 goals96.8%

Over 3.5 goals91.2%

Both teams to score93.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.4%

Goal in Both Halves93.4%

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Home or Draw (1X)67.6%

Draw No Bet - Home63.6%

Home Win52.8%

Draw or Away (X2)45.0%

Draw No Bet - Away36.4%

Away Win30.2%

Draw14.8%

Exactly 1 Goal0.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals94.7%

Over 3.5 Goals89.2%

4+ Goals89.2%

Over 4.5 Goals79.8%

Over 5.5 Goals66.7%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Total Goals Even48.9%

Under 5.5 Goals33.3%

Under 4.5 Goals20.2%

2-4 Goals17.2%

3-4 Goals14.9%

Under 3.5 Goals10.8%

1-3 Goals8.5%

2-3 Goals7.8%

Exactly 3 Goals5.4%

Under 2.5 Goals5.3%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

1-2 Goals3.0%

Exactly 2 Goals2.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score93.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)91.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)8.8%

Home Clean Sheet4.6%

Home Win to Nil4.5%

Away Clean Sheet2.1%

Away Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 0.593.2%

Home Over 1.587.7%

Away Over 1.579.0%

Home Over 2.572.1%

Home 3+ Goals72.1%

Away Over 2.557.4%

Away 3+ Goals57.4%

Away Exactly 221.6%

Home Exactly 215.6%

Away Exactly 114.2%

Home Exactly 18.0%

Away Exactly 04.6%

Home Exactly 02.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.8%

Home to win by 3+23.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 115.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 213.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.6%

Away to win by 3+9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 28.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.590.0%

Home & Over 2.551.7%

Home & BTTS48.3%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Away & BTTS28.2%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.54.6%

Home & No BTTS4.5%

Away & No BTTS2.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Draw & Under 2.51.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Home & Under 2.51.1%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.6%

HT Over 1.581.7%

HT Both Teams Score61.6%

2nd Half More Goals52.7%

HT Home Win46.2%

HT/FT Home/Home37.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win30.4%

HT Draw23.4%

HT/FT Away/Away19.2%

HT Under 1.518.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.2%

HT/FT Away/Home6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT Under 0.54.4%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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