Italy · Serie A

Monza vs Atalanta

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Monza 19.2% Draw 20.0% Atalanta 60.7%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Monza: 6 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Monza

L L L W L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 11:13 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.17

Atalanta

L D D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 11:15 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 5

Monza 0wins ·0 draws ·Atalanta 5wins

Monza 0-4 AtalantaMay 4, 2025

Monza 0-2 AtalantaOct 30, 2024

Monza 1-2 AtalantaApr 21, 2024

Monza 0-3 AtalantaSep 2, 2023

Monza 2-5 AtalantaJun 4, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monza win19.2%

Draw20.0%

Atalanta win60.7%

Over 1.5 goals84.6%

Over 2.5 goals97.9%

Over 3.5 goals42.8%

Both teams to score94.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.5%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.4%

Goal in Both Halves90.4%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)59.0%

Draw or Away (X2)56.6%

Draw No Bet - Home51.4%

Draw No Bet - Away48.6%

Home Win42.5%

Away Win40.1%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.6%

Over 2.5 Goals93.5%

Over 3.5 Goals85.1%

4+ Goals85.1%

Over 4.5 Goals72.2%

Over 5.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals43.5%

Under 4.5 Goals27.8%

2-4 Goals25.3%

3-4 Goals21.2%

Under 3.5 Goals14.9%

1-3 Goals13.8%

2-3 Goals12.5%

Exactly 3 Goals8.4%

Under 2.5 Goals6.5%

1-2 Goals5.5%

Exactly 2 Goals4.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.6%

Away Team to Score94.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)90.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.0%

Home Clean Sheet4.8%

Home Win to Nil4.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.6%

Away Over 0.594.3%

Home Over 1.580.7%

Away Over 1.579.7%

Home Over 2.559.2%

Home 3+ Goals59.2%

Away Over 2.557.5%

Away 3+ Goals57.5%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Exactly 114.6%

Home Exactly 113.9%

Away Exactly 04.8%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.4%

Home to win by 3+15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.0%

Away to win by 3+14.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 211.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.588.0%

Home & Over 2.540.8%

Away & Over 2.538.5%

Home & BTTS37.9%

Away & BTTS35.9%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Draw & Over 2.514.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.5%

Home & No BTTS4.6%

Away & No BTTS4.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Home & Under 2.51.7%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.6%

HT Over 1.576.1%

HT Both Teams Score55.9%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Home Win38.0%

HT Away Win36.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.8%

HT/FT Away/Away26.0%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Under 1.523.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.6%

HT Under 0.56.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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