Italy · Serie A

Monza vs Cagliari

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Oct 19

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Monza 29.4% Draw 27.0% Cagliari 43.6%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 59%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cagliari: 4 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Monza 1 wins, 1 draws, Cagliari 2 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

Monza

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:15 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.5

Cagliari

D W W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 4

Monza 1wins ·1 draws ·Cagliari 2wins

Monza 0-3 CagliariMar 30, 2025

Monza 1-2 CagliariJan 5, 2025

Monza 1-0 CagliariMar 16, 2024

Monza 1-1 CagliariNov 26, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monza win29.4%

Draw27.0%

Cagliari win43.6%

Over 1.5 goals71.3%

Over 2.5 goals61.1%

Over 3.5 goals24.1%

Both teams to score59.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

84.5%

Away Over 0.5

84.5%

Under 4.5 Goals

84.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.6%

Home or Away (12)77.6%

Draw No Bet - Away75.0%

Away Win58.1%

Both Halves Over 0.557.0%

Goal in Both Halves57.0%

Home or Draw (1X)41.8%

Draw No Bet - Home25.0%

Draw22.4%

Home Win19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal16.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals84.1%

Over 1.5 Goals77.6%

Under 3.5 Goals68.3%

1-3 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.0%

2-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals31.7%

4+ Goals31.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.6%

Under 1.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score84.5%

Home Team to Score62.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.3%

Away Clean Sheet37.6%

Away Win to Nil31.8%

Home Clean Sheet15.5%

Home Win to Nil9.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.584.5%

Home Over 0.562.3%

Away Over 1.555.6%

Home Exactly 037.6%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 128.9%

Away Over 2.528.6%

Away 3+ Goals28.6%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Over 1.525.6%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Away Exactly 015.5%

Home Over 2.57.6%

Home 3+ Goals7.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away33.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.3%

Away to win by 124.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 217.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.0%

Away to win by 3+16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.9%

Home to win by 24.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.8%

Home to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.0%

Away & Over 2.537.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.3%

Away & No BTTS31.8%

Away & BTTS26.3%

Away & Under 2.521.0%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Draw & Under 2.516.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.0%

Home & Over 2.510.9%

BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Home & BTTS9.8%

Home & No BTTS9.7%

Home & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.2%

HT Under 1.563.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Away Win42.7%

HT Draw39.1%

HT/FT Away/Away36.9%

HT Over 1.536.6%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.8%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT Both Teams Score20.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.3%

HT Home Win18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Home/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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