Italy · Serie A

Monza vs Napoli

Full time · 1:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Monza 17.4% Draw 21.0% Napoli 61.6%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

✓ Pick was correct (1:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Napoli: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Monza

L W L W L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Napoli

D W L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Monza 1wins ·1 draws ·Napoli 3wins

Monza 0-1 NapoliApr 19, 2025

Monza 0-2 NapoliSep 29, 2024

Monza 2-4 NapoliApr 7, 2024

Monza 0-0 NapoliDec 29, 2023

Monza 2-0 NapoliMay 14, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monza win17.4%

Draw21.0%

Napoli win61.6%

Over 1.5 goals80.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.4%

Over 3.5 goals35.2%

Both teams to score85.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.3%

Goal in Both Halves84.3%

Home or Away (12)83.6%

Home or Draw (1X)77.9%

Draw No Bet - Home74.2%

Home Win62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)37.4%

Draw No Bet - Away25.8%

Away Win21.5%

Draw15.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals87.6%

Over 3.5 Goals74.0%

4+ Goals74.0%

Under 5.5 Goals60.8%

Over 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals43.2%

Over 5.5 Goals39.2%

2-4 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals30.9%

Under 3.5 Goals26.0%

1-3 Goals24.8%

2-3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals11.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score84.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.8%

Home Clean Sheet14.6%

Home Win to Nil14.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Away Over 0.584.9%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Home Over 2.560.6%

Home 3+ Goals60.6%

Away Over 1.556.9%

Away Over 2.530.0%

Away 3+ Goals30.0%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Away Exactly 014.6%

Home Exactly 113.4%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)55.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away55.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)43.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home43.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.2%

Home to win by 3+27.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.0%

Away to win by 111.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.5%

Home & Over 2.557.0%

Home & BTTS48.1%

Away & Over 2.519.2%

Away & BTTS17.9%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

Home & No BTTS14.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.8%

HT Over 1.566.6%

HT Home Win50.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Both Teams Score43.9%

HT/FT Home/Home42.8%

HT Under 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.1%

HT Away Win22.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT Under 0.510.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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