Italy · Serie A

Monza vs Sassuolo

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Monza 25.3% Draw 23.2% Sassuolo 51.5%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Monza 3 wins, 1 draws, Sassuolo 0 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Monza

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:12 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2

Sassuolo

W D W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Monza 3wins ·1 draws ·Sassuolo 0wins

Monza 1-0 SassuoloJan 28, 2024

Monza 1-0 SassuoloOct 2, 2023

Monza 2-1 SassuoloMay 19, 2023

Monza 1-1 SassuoloJan 22, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Monza win25.3%

Draw23.2%

Sassuolo win51.5%

Over 1.5 goals79.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.9%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score85.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.574.0%

Goal in Both Halves74.0%

Home or Draw (1X)73.8%

Draw No Bet - Home67.6%

Home Win54.3%

Draw or Away (X2)45.6%

Draw No Bet - Away32.4%

Away Win26.1%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.6%

Under 5.5 Goals78.9%

Over 2.5 Goals75.8%

Under 4.5 Goals63.3%

Over 3.5 Goals56.2%

4+ Goals56.2%

2-4 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.8%

1-3 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals39.2%

Over 4.5 Goals36.7%

2-3 Goals34.4%

Under 2.5 Goals24.2%

1-2 Goals22.2%

Over 5.5 Goals21.1%

Exactly 3 Goals19.6%

Exactly 2 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.5%

Away Team to Score80.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.4%

Home Clean Sheet19.8%

Home Win to Nil17.9%

Away Clean Sheet9.4%

Away Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.5%

Away Over 0.580.1%

Home Over 1.568.3%

Away Over 1.548.0%

Home Over 2.542.0%

Home 3+ Goals42.0%

Away Exactly 132.1%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Over 2.522.1%

Away 3+ Goals22.1%

Away Exactly 019.8%

Home Exactly 09.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.0%

Home to win by 3+18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.5%

Away to win by 27.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.4%

Home & Over 2.544.7%

Home & BTTS36.4%

Away & Over 2.520.6%

Away & BTTS18.5%

Home & No BTTS17.9%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.0%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.59.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.0%

Away & No BTTS7.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.3%

HT Over 1.553.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.5%

HT Home Win43.0%

HT/FT Home/Home35.3%

HT Both Teams Score33.9%

HT Draw32.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Away Win24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.4%

HT Under 0.516.7%

HT/FT Away/Away15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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