Portugal · Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Benfica

Kick-off 20:45 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Moreirense 11.1% Draw 16.6% Benfica 72.3%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 5 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Moreirense

L W L D D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Benfica

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 19:4 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Moreirense 0wins ·1 draws ·Benfica 4wins

Moreirense 1-4 BenficaApr 25, 2026

Moreirense 0-4 BenficaDec 14, 2025

Moreirense 2-3 BenficaFeb 8, 2025

Moreirense 1-1 BenficaAug 30, 2024

Moreirense 0-3 BenficaApr 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Moreirense win11.1%

Draw16.6%

Benfica win72.3%

Over 1.5 goals79.9%

Over 2.5 goals58.0%

Over 3.5 goals35.6%

Both teams to score70.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Away

92.0%

Draw or Away (X2)

91.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away92.0%

Draw or Away (X2)91.9%

Home or Away (12)88.7%

Away Win81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.9%

Goal in Both Halves79.9%

Home or Draw (1X)17.4%

Draw10.3%

Draw No Bet - Home8.0%

Home Win7.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.1%

Over 2.5 Goals82.1%

Under 5.5 Goals70.5%

Over 3.5 Goals65.5%

4+ Goals65.5%

Under 4.5 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals46.6%

2-4 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals35.5%

Under 3.5 Goals34.5%

1-3 Goals32.4%

Over 5.5 Goals29.5%

2-3 Goals27.6%

Under 2.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.0%

Home Team to Score64.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.9%

Away Clean Sheet35.0%

Away Win to Nil33.9%

Home Clean Sheet3.0%

Home Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.0%

Away Over 1.585.5%

Away Over 2.567.0%

Away 3+ Goals67.0%

Home Over 0.564.0%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Home Exactly 035.0%

Home Over 1.527.7%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 218.5%

Away Exactly 110.5%

Home Over 2.58.7%

Home 3+ Goals8.7%

Away Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)91.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away91.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home83.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home70.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away65.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)52.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home52.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away46.4%

Away to win by 3+46.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home33.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away28.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away15.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw8.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)7.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.8%

Home to win by 14.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.7%

Home to win by 21.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.6%

Home to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.571.4%

BTTS & Over 2.558.2%

Away & BTTS47.8%

Away & No BTTS33.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.0%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & BTTS9.2%

Home & Over 2.55.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Home & BTTS5.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Home & No BTTS1.9%

Home & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Away Win64.9%

HT/FT Away/Away61.5%

HT Over 1.560.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Under 1.539.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.7%

HT Draw24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.0%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT Home Win10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Home/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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