Portugal · Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Estrela

Kick-off 16:30 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Moreirense 48.3% Draw 24.2% Estrela 27.5%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Moreirense: 7 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Moreirense 1 wins, 3 draws, Estrela 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Moreirense

W L D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Estrela

L L L D W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Moreirense 1wins ·3 draws ·Estrela 1wins

Moreirense 3-2 EstrelaMay 2, 2026

Moreirense 0-0 EstrelaDec 20, 2025

Moreirense 1-1 EstrelaMar 2, 2025

Moreirense 1-2 EstrelaSep 28, 2024

Moreirense 2-2 EstrelaApr 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Moreirense win48.3%

Draw24.2%

Estrela win27.5%

Over 1.5 goals72.5%

Over 2.5 goals48.1%

Over 3.5 goals26.4%

Both teams to score84.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Both Halves Over 0.575.9%

Goal in Both Halves75.9%

Draw or Away (X2)63.3%

Home or Draw (1X)56.9%

Draw No Bet - Away54.0%

Draw No Bet - Home46.0%

Away Win43.0%

Home Win36.7%

Draw20.2%

Exactly 1 Goal6.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals78.2%

Under 5.5 Goals76.3%

Under 4.5 Goals60.1%

Over 3.5 Goals59.4%

4+ Goals59.4%

2-4 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals40.6%

Over 4.5 Goals39.9%

1-3 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals38.3%

2-3 Goals32.4%

Over 5.5 Goals23.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals18.8%

Exactly 2 Goals13.6%

Under 1.5 Goals8.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.4%

Home Team to Score86.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.7%

Away Clean Sheet13.7%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Home Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Win to Nil10.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.4%

Home Over 0.586.2%

Away Over 1.563.4%

Home Over 1.559.0%

Away Over 2.536.5%

Away 3+ Goals36.5%

Home Over 2.532.0%

Home 3+ Goals32.0%

Home Exactly 127.2%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.0%

Home Exactly 013.7%

Away Exactly 011.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.3%

Away to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 212.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.0%

Away to win by 3+12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 210.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.9%

Home to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.5%

Away & Over 2.535.9%

Away & BTTS30.9%

Home & Over 2.530.4%

Home & BTTS26.7%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.0%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

Home & No BTTS10.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Home & Under 2.56.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.5%

HT Over 1.555.6%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.4%

HT Both Teams Score36.7%

HT Away Win36.0%

HT Draw32.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Home Win31.9%

HT/FT Away/Away27.0%

HT/FT Home/Home22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT Under 0.515.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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