Portugal · Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente

Kick-off 18:45 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Moreirense 34.8% Draw 28.7% GIL Vicente 36.5%

Over 2.5 - 38% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to GIL Vicente: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Moreirense 2 wins, 0 draws, GIL Vicente 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Moreirense

D W L L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

GIL Vicente

D L L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Moreirense 2wins ·0 draws ·GIL Vicente 3wins

Moreirense 1-2 GIL VicenteFeb 7, 2026

Moreirense 0-2 GIL VicenteAug 29, 2025

Moreirense 1-0 GIL VicenteApr 6, 2025

Moreirense 3-2 GIL VicenteNov 8, 2024

Moreirense 0-1 GIL VicenteApr 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Moreirense win34.8%

Draw28.7%

GIL Vicente win36.5%

Over 1.5 goals65.0%

Over 2.5 goals38.4%

Over 3.5 goals18.6%

Both teams to score52.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

85.1%

Under 4.5 Goals

84.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)79.1%

Home or Away (12)77.1%

Draw No Bet - Home72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.557.0%

Goal in Both Halves57.0%

Home Win56.2%

Draw or Away (X2)43.8%

Draw No Bet - Away27.1%

Draw22.9%

Away Win20.9%

Exactly 1 Goal16.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.2%

Under 4.5 Goals84.2%

Over 1.5 Goals77.5%

Under 3.5 Goals68.4%

1-3 Goals62.5%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.1%

2-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals31.6%

4+ Goals31.6%

Exactly 2 Goals23.6%

Under 1.5 Goals22.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.8%

Over 5.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score83.8%

Away Team to Score63.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.5%

Home Clean Sheet36.2%

Home Win to Nil30.3%

Away Clean Sheet16.2%

Away Win to Nil10.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.583.8%

Away Over 0.563.8%

Home Over 1.554.3%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 036.2%

Home Exactly 129.5%

Home Over 2.527.5%

Home 3+ Goals27.5%

Away Over 1.527.0%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 218.7%

Home Exactly 016.2%

Away Over 2.58.3%

Away 3+ Goals8.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.1%

Home to win by 124.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 217.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.8%

Home to win by 3+14.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 25.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.7%

Home & Over 2.535.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.2%

Home & No BTTS30.3%

Home & BTTS25.9%

Home & Under 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Draw & Under 2.516.7%

Away & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Away & BTTS10.6%

Away & No BTTS10.3%

Away & Under 2.59.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.1%

HT Under 1.563.5%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Home Win41.5%

HT Draw39.4%

HT Over 1.536.5%

HT/FT Home/Home35.4%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.9%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT Both Teams Score20.5%

HT Away Win19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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