Portugal · Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Maritimo

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Sep 14

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Moreirense 42.2% Draw 26.7% Maritimo 31.1%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Maritimo: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Moreirense 0 wins, 1 draws, Maritimo 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Moreirense

L L W L D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

Maritimo

L L D W W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 2

Moreirense 0wins ·1 draws ·Maritimo 1wins

Moreirense 0-1 MaritimoMar 6, 2022

Moreirense 0-0 MaritimoOct 1, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Moreirense win42.2%

Draw26.7%

Maritimo win31.1%

Over 1.5 goals69.2%

Over 2.5 goals43.4%

Over 3.5 goals22.4%

Both teams to score80.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

82.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

82.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Draw or Away (X2)62.9%

Home or Draw (1X)61.1%

Both Halves Over 0.560.8%

Goal in Both Halves60.8%

Draw No Bet - Away51.2%

Draw No Bet - Home48.8%

Away Win38.9%

Home Win37.1%

Draw24.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals91.0%

Over 1.5 Goals80.9%

Under 4.5 Goals80.6%

Under 3.5 Goals63.5%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals58.9%

1-3 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.4%

Under 2.5 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals39.5%

Over 3.5 Goals36.5%

4+ Goals36.5%

1-2 Goals36.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals19.4%

Under 1.5 Goals19.1%

Over 5.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score78.7%

Home Team to Score77.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.7%

Away Clean Sheet22.2%

Home Clean Sheet21.3%

Away Win to Nil17.4%

Home Win to Nil16.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.578.7%

Home Over 0.577.8%

Away Over 1.545.8%

Home Over 1.544.4%

Home Exactly 133.4%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 022.2%

Away Exactly 021.3%

Away Over 2.520.3%

Away 3+ Goals20.3%

Home Over 2.519.3%

Home 3+ Goals19.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.8%

Away to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.5%

Away to win by 211.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 210.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.5%

Away to win by 3+7.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.8%

Home to win by 3+6.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.550.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.1%

Away & Over 2.525.9%

Home & Over 2.524.6%

Away & BTTS21.4%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS17.4%

Home & No BTTS16.6%

Draw & Under 2.515.7%

Away & Under 2.512.9%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.7%

HT Under 1.560.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Over 1.539.9%

HT Draw38.7%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Away Win31.2%

HT Home Win30.1%

HT Under 0.525.3%

HT Both Teams Score24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT/FT Away/Away23.3%

HT/FT Home/Home22.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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