Portugal · Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs SC Braga

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Moreirense 22.1% Draw 23.9% SC Braga 54.0%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to SC Braga: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Moreirense

D L W L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

SC Braga

W W W D D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Moreirense 0wins ·0 draws ·SC Braga 5wins

Moreirense 0-1 SC BragaApr 4, 2026

Moreirense 1-2 SC BragaNov 9, 2025

Moreirense 1-2 SC BragaFeb 3, 2025

Moreirense 1-3 SC BragaAug 25, 2024

Moreirense 0-1 SC BragaFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Moreirense win22.1%

Draw23.9%

SC Braga win54.0%

Over 1.5 goals74.0%

Over 2.5 goals49.4%

Over 3.5 goals27.5%

Both teams to score54.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)76.4%

Home or Away (12)75.7%

Draw No Bet - Away68.8%

Both Halves Over 0.554.8%

Goal in Both Halves54.8%

Away Win52.1%

Home or Draw (1X)47.9%

Draw No Bet - Home31.2%

Draw24.3%

Home Win23.6%

Exactly 1 Goal17.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.2%

Over 0.5 Goals93.4%

Under 4.5 Goals86.0%

Over 1.5 Goals75.5%

Under 3.5 Goals71.0%

1-3 Goals64.4%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.9%

2-3 Goals46.5%

1-2 Goals42.3%

3-4 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals29.0%

4+ Goals29.0%

Under 1.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 2 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.0%

Under 0.5 Goals6.6%

Exactly 0 Goals6.6%

Over 5.5 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.3%

Home Team to Score64.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.3%

Away Clean Sheet35.2%

Away Win to Nil28.6%

Home Clean Sheet18.7%

Home Win to Nil12.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.3%

Home Over 0.564.8%

Away Over 1.549.9%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 035.2%

Away Exactly 131.4%

Home Over 1.528.1%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.523.6%

Away 3+ Goals23.6%

Home Exactly 219.2%

Away Exactly 018.7%

Home Over 2.58.9%

Home 3+ Goals8.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away28.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.0%

Away to win by 124.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 114.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.2%

Away to win by 3+12.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.2%

Home to win by 26.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.5%

Home to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.541.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.3%

Away & Over 2.531.8%

Away & No BTTS28.6%

Away & BTTS23.5%

Away & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & Under 2.518.1%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Home & Over 2.513.2%

Home & No BTTS12.1%

Home & BTTS11.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

Home & Under 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.6%

HT Under 1.565.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.5%

HT Draw40.8%

HT Away Win38.5%

HT Over 1.534.6%

HT/FT Away/Away32.2%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.4%

HT Home Win20.7%

HT Both Teams Score19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.7%

HT/FT Home/Home13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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