Scotland · Premiership

Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Motherwell 61.0% Draw 23.0% Aberdeen 15.9%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Motherwell: 9 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Motherwell 3 wins, 1 draws, Aberdeen 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Aberdeen

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Motherwell 3wins ·1 draws ·Aberdeen 1wins

Motherwell 2-0 AberdeenFeb 15, 2026

Motherwell 1-1 AberdeenNov 9, 2025

Motherwell 2-0 AberdeenSep 27, 2025

Motherwell 1-4 AberdeenMar 29, 2025

Motherwell 2-0 AberdeenJan 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win61.0%

Draw23.0%

Aberdeen win15.9%

Over 1.5 goals73.0%

Over 2.5 goals47.7%

Over 3.5 goals26.0%

Both teams to score50.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home91.6%

Home or Away (12)87.7%

Home Win80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.573.5%

Goal in Both Halves73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)19.2%

Draw11.8%

Draw No Bet - Away8.4%

Exactly 1 Goal7.6%

Away Win7.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals90.0%

Under 5.5 Goals79.8%

Over 2.5 Goals74.9%

Under 4.5 Goals64.4%

Over 3.5 Goals55.1%

4+ Goals55.1%

2-4 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals44.9%

1-3 Goals42.5%

3-4 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals35.6%

2-3 Goals34.9%

Under 2.5 Goals25.1%

1-2 Goals22.7%

Over 5.5 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.1%

Under 1.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score57.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.8%

Home Clean Sheet41.7%

Home Win to Nil39.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.6%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.580.7%

Home Over 2.558.8%

Home 3+ Goals58.8%

Away Over 0.557.9%

Away Exactly 041.7%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Home Exactly 221.9%

Away Over 1.521.6%

Away Exactly 215.8%

Home Exactly 114.2%

Away Over 2.55.8%

Away 3+ Goals5.8%

Home Exactly 04.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home41.4%

Home to win by 3+41.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 220.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 15.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.3%

BTTS & Over 2.550.0%

Home & BTTS40.6%

Home & No BTTS39.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.5%

Home & Under 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.57.1%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.0%

HT Home Win62.1%

HT/FT Home/Home58.7%

HT Over 1.552.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.547.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw27.5%

HT Both Teams Score24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.5%

HT Under 0.517.0%

HT Away Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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