Scotland · Premiership

Motherwell vs Celtic

Kick-off 12:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Motherwell 26.8% Draw 24.5% Celtic 48.7%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Celtic: 9 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Celtic

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Motherwell 1wins ·0 draws ·Celtic 4wins

Motherwell 2-3 CelticMay 13, 2026

Motherwell 1-3 CelticMar 14, 2026

Motherwell 2-0 CelticDec 30, 2025

Motherwell 2-3 CelticOct 5, 2025

Motherwell 1-3 CelticFeb 2, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win26.8%

Draw24.5%

Celtic win48.7%

Over 1.5 goals76.4%

Over 2.5 goals52.5%

Over 3.5 goals30.2%

Both teams to score76.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.4%

Home Team to Score

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Home or Draw (1X)64.8%

Draw No Bet - Home56.1%

Draw or Away (X2)55.0%

Home Win44.9%

Draw No Bet - Away43.9%

Away Win35.1%

Draw19.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.5%

Over 2.5 Goals79.7%

Under 5.5 Goals74.4%

Over 3.5 Goals61.4%

4+ Goals61.4%

Under 4.5 Goals57.9%

2-4 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.1%

Under 3.5 Goals38.6%

3-4 Goals37.6%

1-3 Goals37.1%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals20.3%

1-2 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.5%

Away Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.7%

Home Clean Sheet13.6%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.4%

Away Win to Nil9.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.5%

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 1.565.9%

Away Over 1.559.3%

Home Over 2.539.3%

Home 3+ Goals39.3%

Away Over 2.532.2%

Away 3+ Goals32.2%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.6%

Away Exactly 013.6%

Home Exactly 010.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.2%

Home to win by 3+13.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.5%

Away to win by 3+8.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.0%

Home & Over 2.538.1%

Home & BTTS32.8%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Away & BTTS26.1%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.9%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Away & No BTTS9.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Over 1.557.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.9%

HT Both Teams Score37.9%

HT Home Win37.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.6%

HT Away Win31.0%

HT/FT Home/Home28.5%

HT/FT Away/Away21.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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