Scotland · Premiership

Motherwell vs Falkirk

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Motherwell 60.5% Draw 22.2% Falkirk 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Motherwell: 13 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

D W W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Falkirk

L L L L W L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:16 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 4

Motherwell 0wins ·1 draws ·Falkirk 3wins

Motherwell 0-1 FalkirkMay 2, 2026

Motherwell 2-3 FalkirkApr 4, 2026

Motherwell 0-0 FalkirkDec 3, 2025

Motherwell 1-2 FalkirkOct 18, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win60.5%

Draw22.2%

Falkirk win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals78.9%

Over 2.5 goals55.4%

Over 3.5 goals33.0%

Both teams to score79.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.7%

HT Over 0.5

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Home or Draw (1X)83.4%

Both Halves Over 0.581.9%

Goal in Both Halves81.9%

Draw No Bet - Home81.1%

Home Win68.7%

Draw or Away (X2)30.8%

Draw No Bet - Away18.9%

Away Win16.1%

Draw14.7%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals84.9%

Over 3.5 Goals69.5%

4+ Goals69.5%

Under 5.5 Goals66.2%

Over 4.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals48.8%

2-4 Goals43.3%

Over 5.5 Goals33.8%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Under 3.5 Goals30.5%

1-3 Goals29.0%

2-3 Goals25.0%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

Under 2.5 Goals15.1%

1-2 Goals13.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score79.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.3%

Home Clean Sheet20.5%

Home Win to Nil19.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.582.2%

Away Over 0.579.0%

Home Over 2.561.2%

Home 3+ Goals61.2%

Away Over 1.546.6%

Away Exactly 132.4%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Away Over 2.521.1%

Away 3+ Goals21.1%

Home Exactly 221.0%

Away Exactly 020.5%

Home Exactly 113.2%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.3%

Home to win by 3+32.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.0%

Home to win by 218.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 19.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 24.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.4%

Home & Over 2.561.7%

Home & BTTS49.1%

Home & No BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

Away & Over 2.513.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Away & BTTS12.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.6%

Home & Under 2.57.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Away & No BTTS3.3%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.3%

HT Over 1.563.2%

HT Home Win54.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT/FT Home/Home48.4%

HT Both Teams Score38.8%

HT Under 1.536.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.0%

HT Away Win18.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT Under 0.511.7%

HT/FT Away/Away9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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