Scotland · Premiership

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Motherwell 36.4% Draw 27.1% Heart Of Midlothian 36.5%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Motherwell 0 wins, 3 draws, Heart Of Midlothian 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Heart Of Midlothian

W D D D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Motherwell 0wins ·3 draws ·Heart Of Midlothian 2wins

Motherwell 1-1 Heart Of MidlothianMay 9, 2026

Motherwell 1-3 Heart Of MidlothianApr 11, 2026

Motherwell 0-0 Heart Of MidlothianNov 29, 2025

Motherwell 3-3 Heart Of MidlothianAug 23, 2025

Motherwell 0-3 Heart Of MidlothianMay 10, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win36.4%

Draw27.1%

Heart Of Midlothian win36.5%

Over 1.5 goals70.6%

Over 2.5 goals44.8%

Over 3.5 goals23.6%

Both teams to score57.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.5%

Draw No Bet - Home88.6%

Home or Away (12)86.8%

Both Halves Over 0.578.2%

Goal in Both Halves78.2%

Home Win77.0%

Draw or Away (X2)22.5%

Draw12.6%

Draw No Bet - Away11.4%

Away Win9.9%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.2%

Over 3.5 Goals62.9%

4+ Goals62.9%

Under 4.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals49.0%

Over 4.5 Goals43.6%

Under 3.5 Goals37.1%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.3%

2-3 Goals29.7%

Over 5.5 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

1-2 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals12.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score67.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.9%

Home Clean Sheet31.5%

Home Win to Nil30.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.5%

Away Over 0.567.9%

Home Over 2.561.8%

Home 3+ Goals61.8%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Over 1.531.7%

Away Exactly 031.5%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Away Over 2.510.9%

Away 3+ Goals10.9%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.4%

Home to win by 3+39.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 16.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.3%

BTTS & Over 2.560.4%

Home & BTTS46.7%

Home & No BTTS30.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & BTTS11.3%

Home & Under 2.510.7%

Away & Over 2.57.6%

Away & BTTS7.2%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Home Win60.2%

HT Over 1.558.4%

HT/FT Home/Home55.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score30.9%

HT Draw26.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT Away Win13.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Away5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners81.7%

Under 11.5 Corners79.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners73.7%

Under 10.5 Corners69.0%

Under 9.5 Corners57.0%

Over 8.5 Corners56.2%

Under 8.5 Corners43.8%

Over 9.5 Corners43.0%

Over 10.5 Corners31.0%

Over 11.5 Corners21.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners17.9%

Home Most Corners10.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards79.0%

Over 2.5 Cards75.7%

Under 4.5 Cards63.5%

Over 3.5 Cards56.0%

Under 3.5 Cards44.0%

Over 4.5 Cards36.5%

Under 2.5 Cards24.3%

Over 5.5 Cards21.0%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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