UEFA Europa Conference League

Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki

Kick-off 19:30 · Thu, Aug 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

Motherwell 3.6% Draw 11.9% HJK Helsinki 84.5%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 13.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Motherwell: 14 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.9%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

HJK Helsinki

D W W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 9:1 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 1

Motherwell 0wins ·1 draws ·HJK Helsinki 0wins

Motherwell 1-1 HJK HelsinkiAug 6, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win3.6%

Draw11.9%

HJK Helsinki win84.5%

Over 1.5 goals85.9%

Over 2.5 goals65.9%

Over 3.5 goals43.9%

Both teams to score38.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

87.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)95.5%

Draw No Bet - Away95.3%

Home or Away (12)89.2%

Away Win85.0%

Both Halves Over 0.566.2%

Goal in Both Halves66.2%

Home or Draw (1X)14.7%

Exactly 1 Goal11.4%

Draw10.5%

Draw No Bet - Home4.7%

Home Win4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals87.4%

Over 1.5 Goals85.0%

Under 4.5 Goals74.8%

Over 2.5 Goals65.7%

2-4 Goals59.8%

Under 3.5 Goals56.2%

1-3 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals43.8%

4+ Goals43.8%

2-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.3%

1-2 Goals30.7%

Over 4.5 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals15.0%

Over 5.5 Goals12.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.0%

Away Clean Sheet59.5%

Away Win to Nil56.1%

Home Team to Score40.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)38.0%

Home Clean Sheet5.6%

Home Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 1.577.9%

Home Exactly 059.5%

Away Over 2.554.6%

Away 3+ Goals54.6%

Home Over 0.540.3%

Home Exactly 130.7%

Away Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 116.2%

Home Over 1.59.5%

Home Exactly 27.9%

Away Exactly 05.6%

Home Over 2.51.6%

Home 3+ Goals1.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away95.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home74.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away66.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home55.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)43.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away43.9%

Away to win by 3+43.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home33.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.2%

Away to win by 222.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw19.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.8%

Away to win by 118.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home14.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw3.4%

Home to win by 13.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.7%

Home to win by 20.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home to win by 3+0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.561.4%

Away & No BTTS56.1%

BTTS & Over 2.533.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.0%

Away & BTTS28.9%

Away & Under 2.523.5%

Draw & Under 2.58.3%

Draw & BTTS7.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Home & No BTTS2.3%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

Home & Over 2.52.0%

Home & BTTS2.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.3%

HT Away Win64.7%

HT/FT Away/Away62.5%

HT Under 1.554.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.2%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Draw28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT Under 0.521.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.3%

HT Both Teams Score15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT Home Win6.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Home/Home2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.8%

HT/FT Away/Home0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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