UEFA Europa Conference League

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg

Kick-off 19:30 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Motherwell 79.2% Draw 13.5% SC Freiburg 7.3%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Motherwell: 14 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

W D D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 10:2 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.33

SC Freiburg

L W L W D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win79.2%

Draw13.5%

SC Freiburg win7.3%

Over 1.5 goals91.6%

Over 2.5 goals76.4%

Over 3.5 goals56.8%

Both teams to score58.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.6%

Draw No Bet - Home90.9%

Home or Away (12)87.5%

Home Win79.5%

Both Halves Over 0.574.4%

Goal in Both Halves74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)20.0%

Draw12.1%

Draw No Bet - Away9.1%

Away Win7.9%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals78.7%

Over 2.5 Goals76.0%

Under 4.5 Goals63.0%

Over 3.5 Goals56.6%

4+ Goals56.6%

2-4 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals43.4%

1-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals34.0%

Under 2.5 Goals24.0%

1-2 Goals21.7%

Over 5.5 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.4%

Exactly 2 Goals14.5%

Under 1.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score60.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.6%

Home Clean Sheet39.4%

Home Win to Nil37.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.580.9%

Away Over 0.560.2%

Home Over 2.559.2%

Home 3+ Goals59.2%

Away Exactly 039.4%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.523.7%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Away Exactly 216.9%

Home Exactly 114.1%

Away Over 2.56.7%

Away 3+ Goals6.7%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.8%

Home to win by 3+40.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 220.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 15.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.4%

BTTS & Over 2.552.3%

Home & BTTS42.0%

Home & No BTTS37.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.4%

Home & Under 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

Away & Over 2.55.5%

Away & BTTS5.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.6%

HT Home Win61.6%

HT/FT Home/Home57.9%

HT Over 1.554.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.0%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw27.4%

HT Both Teams Score25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.2%

HT Under 0.516.4%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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