Scotland · Premiership

Motherwell vs ST Mirren

Kick-off 16:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Motherwell 58.4% Draw 24.5% ST Mirren 17.1%

Over 2.5 - 42% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.6%

Exact-score model probability

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

ST Mirren

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Motherwell 2wins ·3 draws ·ST Mirren 0wins

Motherwell 3-3 ST MirrenAug 30, 2026

Motherwell 5-0 ST MirrenFeb 21, 2026

Motherwell 2-0 ST MirrenJan 3, 2026

Motherwell 0-0 ST MirrenAug 9, 2025

Motherwell 2-2 ST MirrenMar 15, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Motherwell win58.4%

Draw24.5%

ST Mirren win17.1%

Over 1.5 goals68.6%

Over 2.5 goals42.4%

Over 3.5 goals21.7%

Both teams to score40.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)79.8%

Home or Away (12)74.2%

Draw No Bet - Home72.8%

Home Win54.0%

Both Halves Over 0.547.4%

Goal in Both Halves47.4%

Draw or Away (X2)46.0%

Draw No Bet - Away27.2%

Draw25.8%

Exactly 1 Goal22.4%

Away Win20.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.7%

Under 4.5 Goals91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals90.5%

Under 3.5 Goals78.9%

1-3 Goals69.4%

Over 1.5 Goals68.1%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 2.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals48.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals32.8%

Under 1.5 Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.3%

Over 3.5 Goals21.1%

4+ Goals21.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Under 0.5 Goals9.5%

Exactly 0 Goals9.5%

Over 4.5 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.1%

Away Team to Score56.0%

Home Clean Sheet44.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.9%

Home Win to Nil34.4%

Away Clean Sheet21.7%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.3%

Away Over 0.556.0%

Home Over 1.545.2%

Away Exactly 044.0%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 021.7%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Away Over 1.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Exactly 214.8%

Away Over 2.55.1%

Away 3+ Goals5.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.9%

Home to win by 125.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 216.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.6%

Home to win by 3+11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 24.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.3%

Home & No BTTS34.4%

BTTS & Over 2.531.9%

Home & Over 2.528.3%

Home & Under 2.525.7%

Draw & Under 2.521.5%

Home & BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Away & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

Away & Over 2.59.1%

Away & BTTS8.0%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.4%

HT Over 0.565.3%

HT Draw44.1%

2nd Half More Goals41.9%

HT Home Win38.4%

HT Under 0.534.7%

HT/FT Home/Home33.0%

1st Half More Goals30.4%

HT Over 1.528.6%

Equal Goals Each Half27.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.7%

HT Away Win17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw17.2%

HT Both Teams Score15.4%

HT/FT Away/Away10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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