Portugal · Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Alverca

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Nacional 47.4% Draw 26.4% Alverca 26.2%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 34%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 18.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Nacional: 8 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nacional 1 wins, 0 draws, Alverca 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.2%

Exact-score model probability

Nacional

L D L W D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Alverca

L D L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

Nacional 1wins ·0 draws ·Alverca 1wins

Nacional 1-0 AlvercaApr 18, 2026

Nacional 0-1 AlvercaDec 7, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nacional win47.4%

Draw26.4%

Alverca win26.2%

Over 1.5 goals65.5%

Over 2.5 goals39.5%

Over 3.5 goals19.4%

Both teams to score34.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.5%

Draw No Bet - Home89.4%

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Home Win71.3%

Both Halves Over 0.546.9%

Goal in Both Halves46.9%

Draw or Away (X2)28.7%

Exactly 1 Goal22.7%

Draw20.2%

Draw No Bet - Away10.6%

Away Win8.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.9%

Under 4.5 Goals91.3%

Over 0.5 Goals90.2%

Under 3.5 Goals79.4%

1-3 Goals69.6%

Over 1.5 Goals67.5%

Under 2.5 Goals58.9%

2-4 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals49.1%

2-3 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals41.1%

Under 1.5 Goals32.5%

3-4 Goals32.4%

Exactly 2 Goals26.4%

Over 3.5 Goals20.6%

4+ Goals20.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.5%

Under 0.5 Goals9.8%

Exactly 0 Goals9.8%

Over 4.5 Goals8.7%

Over 5.5 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)68.5%

Home Clean Sheet62.7%

Home Win to Nil53.0%

Away Team to Score37.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)31.5%

Away Clean Sheet15.6%

Away Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.4%

Away Exactly 062.7%

Home Over 1.555.5%

Away Over 0.537.2%

Away Exactly 129.2%

Home Exactly 128.9%

Home Over 2.528.6%

Home 3+ Goals28.6%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 015.6%

Away Over 1.58.0%

Away Exactly 26.8%

Away Over 2.51.2%

Away 3+ Goals1.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)56.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away56.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.3%

Home to win by 127.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.3%

Home to win by 222.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.7%

Home to win by 3+21.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.4%

Away to win by 21.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS53.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.550.4%

Home & Over 2.536.2%

Home & Under 2.535.1%

BTTS & Over 2.523.0%

Home & BTTS18.3%

Draw & Under 2.518.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.1%

Draw & BTTS10.5%

BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Away & No BTTS5.8%

Away & Under 2.55.6%

Away & Over 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.8%

HT Over 0.564.9%

HT Home Win49.6%

HT/FT Home/Home46.5%

2nd Half More Goals41.7%

HT Draw41.5%

HT Under 0.535.1%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

HT Over 1.528.2%

Equal Goals Each Half27.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT Both Teams Score10.7%

HT Away Win8.9%

HT/FT Away/Away4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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