Portugal · Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Estoril

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Nacional 40.0% Draw 24.5% Estoril 35.4%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Nacional: 10 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nacional 0 wins, 2 draws, Estoril 2 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14%

Exact-score model probability

Nacional

D W L L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Estoril

D L D D L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 4

Nacional 0wins ·2 draws ·Estoril 2wins

Nacional 0-1 EstorilMar 15, 2026

Nacional 1-1 EstorilOct 26, 2025

Nacional 2-2 EstorilFeb 15, 2025

Nacional 0-1 EstorilSep 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nacional win40.0%

Draw24.5%

Estoril win35.4%

Over 1.5 goals76.1%

Over 2.5 goals52.6%

Over 3.5 goals30.4%

Both teams to score43.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)75.5%

Home or Away (12)72.6%

Draw No Bet - Home66.2%

Draw or Away (X2)51.9%

Home Win48.1%

Both Halves Over 0.546.1%

Goal in Both Halves46.1%

Draw No Bet - Away33.8%

Draw27.4%

Away Win24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal23.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.0%

Under 4.5 Goals91.7%

Over 0.5 Goals89.9%

Under 3.5 Goals80.1%

1-3 Goals70.0%

Over 1.5 Goals66.8%

Under 2.5 Goals59.8%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-3 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals40.2%

Under 1.5 Goals33.2%

3-4 Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 3.5 Goals19.9%

4+ Goals19.9%

Under 0.5 Goals10.1%

Exactly 0 Goals10.1%

Over 4.5 Goals8.3%

Over 5.5 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score75.0%

Away Team to Score59.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.7%

Home Clean Sheet40.4%

Home Win to Nil30.3%

Away Clean Sheet25.0%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.575.0%

Away Over 0.559.6%

Home Over 1.540.4%

Away Exactly 040.4%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Home Exactly 025.0%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Away Over 1.523.0%

Away Exactly 216.6%

Home Over 2.516.3%

Home 3+ Goals16.3%

Away Over 2.56.4%

Away 3+ Goals6.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.9%

Home to win by 124.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.8%

Home to win by 3+8.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.1%

BTTS & Over 2.532.0%

Home & No BTTS30.3%

Home & Over 2.524.4%

Home & Under 2.523.7%

Draw & Under 2.522.8%

Home & BTTS17.8%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Away & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Away & Over 2.511.3%

Away & BTTS9.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.4%

HT Over 0.564.4%

HT Draw45.3%

2nd Half More Goals41.6%

HT Under 0.535.6%

HT Home Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half28.2%

HT Over 1.527.6%

HT Away Win20.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT Both Teams Score15.5%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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