Portugal · Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Estrela

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Nacional 49.6% Draw 25.6% Estrela 24.8%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Nacional: 7 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Nacional

L W D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Estrela

D D D D L L

Form 0-4-2 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Nacional 1wins ·1 draws ·Estrela 2wins

Nacional 2-0 EstrelaApr 4, 2026

Nacional 1-1 EstrelaNov 9, 2025

Nacional 0-1 EstrelaApr 6, 2025

Nacional 0-2 EstrelaNov 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nacional win49.6%

Draw25.6%

Estrela win24.8%

Over 1.5 goals67.1%

Over 2.5 goals41.4%

Over 3.5 goals20.8%

Both teams to score51.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.9%

Home Team to Score

89.3%

Home Over 0.5

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.3%

Draw No Bet - Home84.5%

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Home Win69.0%

Both Halves Over 0.561.2%

Goal in Both Halves61.2%

Draw or Away (X2)31.0%

Draw18.3%

Draw No Bet - Away15.5%

Exactly 1 Goal14.2%

Away Win12.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals90.9%

Over 1.5 Goals81.2%

Under 4.5 Goals80.3%

Under 3.5 Goals63.1%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.3%

1-3 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.2%

Under 2.5 Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals36.9%

4+ Goals36.9%

1-2 Goals36.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals19.7%

Under 1.5 Goals18.8%

Over 5.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.3%

Away Team to Score56.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.2%

Home Clean Sheet43.1%

Home Win to Nil38.5%

Away Clean Sheet10.7%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.3%

Home Over 1.565.4%

Away Over 0.556.8%

Away Exactly 043.1%

Home Over 2.538.6%

Home 3+ Goals38.6%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 123.9%

Away Over 1.520.6%

Away Exactly 215.2%

Home Exactly 010.7%

Away Over 2.55.3%

Away 3+ Goals5.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.7%

Home to win by 3+24.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.6%

Home to win by 123.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.547.1%

BTTS & Over 2.542.1%

Home & No BTTS38.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.9%

Home & BTTS30.5%

Home & Under 2.521.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.2%

Draw & BTTS13.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Away & Over 2.57.2%

Away & BTTS6.6%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.0%

HT Under 1.559.7%

HT Home Win50.8%

HT/FT Home/Home46.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Over 1.540.3%

HT Draw35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.0%

Equal Goals Each Half23.7%

HT Both Teams Score20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.7%

HT Away Win13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.8%

HT/FT Away/Away6.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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