Portugal · Primeira Liga

Nacional vs SC Braga

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Nacional 20.9% Draw 22.8% SC Braga 56.2%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 67%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to SC Braga: 1 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nacional 1 wins, 0 draws, SC Braga 3 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Nacional

L L L L D L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 5:15 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.5

SC Braga

L L D W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 4

Nacional 1wins ·0 draws ·SC Braga 3wins

Nacional 1-2 SC BragaFeb 28, 2026

Nacional 1-0 SC BragaSep 28, 2025

Nacional 0-1 SC BragaFeb 21, 2025

Nacional 0-3 SC BragaSep 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nacional win20.9%

Draw22.8%

SC Braga win56.2%

Over 1.5 goals74.7%

Over 2.5 goals50.5%

Over 3.5 goals28.5%

Both teams to score66.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.6%

Draw or Away (X2)75.7%

Draw No Bet - Away68.3%

Both Halves Over 0.558.1%

Goal in Both Halves58.1%

Away Win52.3%

Home or Draw (1X)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Home31.7%

Home Win24.3%

Draw23.4%

Exactly 1 Goal15.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.5%

Under 5.5 Goals92.6%

Under 4.5 Goals83.2%

Over 1.5 Goals78.6%

Under 3.5 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.5%

Under 2.5 Goals44.6%

1-2 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 3.5 Goals33.1%

4+ Goals33.1%

Exactly 2 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals16.8%

Over 5.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals5.5%

Exactly 0 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.0%

Home Team to Score67.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.8%

Away Clean Sheet32.2%

Away Win to Nil26.7%

Home Clean Sheet17.0%

Home Win to Nil11.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.0%

Home Over 0.567.8%

Away Over 1.552.8%

Home Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 032.2%

Home Over 1.531.3%

Away Exactly 130.1%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 2.526.1%

Away 3+ Goals26.1%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 017.0%

Home Over 2.510.6%

Home 3+ Goals10.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)29.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away29.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.3%

Away to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 114.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.0%

Away to win by 3+13.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.5%

Home to win by 26.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%

Home to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

Away & Over 2.534.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.5%

Away & No BTTS26.7%

Away & BTTS25.6%

Away & Under 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Draw & Under 2.516.5%

Home & Over 2.514.6%

Home & BTTS12.7%

Home & No BTTS11.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.2%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.9%

HT Under 1.562.5%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Draw39.3%

HT Away Win39.2%

HT Over 1.537.5%

HT/FT Away/Away32.6%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.1%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT Both Teams Score21.9%

HT Home Win21.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.8%

HT/FT Home/Home13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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