UEFA Champions League

Napoli vs Arsenal

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Napoli 14.7% Draw 25.9% Arsenal 59.4%

Over 2.5 - 46% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 14%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 9 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 10:2 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win14.7%

Draw25.9%

Arsenal win59.4%

Over 1.5 goals73.2%

Over 2.5 goals46.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.8%

Both teams to score45.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

92.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

88.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

84.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Away79.0%

Home or Away (12)76.9%

Away Win60.8%

Both Halves Over 0.551.0%

Goal in Both Halves51.0%

Home or Draw (1X)39.2%

Draw23.1%

Draw No Bet - Home21.0%

Exactly 1 Goal20.2%

Home Win16.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.6%

Over 0.5 Goals92.0%

Under 4.5 Goals88.8%

Under 3.5 Goals75.2%

Over 1.5 Goals71.8%

1-3 Goals67.2%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 2.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals45.7%

3-4 Goals35.1%

Under 1.5 Goals28.2%

Exactly 2 Goals25.5%

Over 3.5 Goals24.8%

4+ Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Over 4.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals8.0%

Exactly 0 Goals8.0%

Over 5.5 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.5%

Home Team to Score53.8%

Away Clean Sheet46.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.5%

Away Win to Nil38.2%

Home Clean Sheet17.3%

Home Win to Nil9.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.7%

Home Over 0.553.8%

Away Over 1.552.3%

Home Exactly 046.2%

Home Exactly 135.7%

Away Exactly 130.4%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.525.7%

Away 3+ Goals25.7%

Home Over 1.518.2%

Away Exactly 017.3%

Home Exactly 213.8%

Home Over 2.54.4%

Home 3+ Goals4.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)60.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home39.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.9%

Away to win by 125.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 218.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.0%

Away to win by 3+16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 111.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.7%

Home to win by 23.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.0%

Home to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.542.9%

Away & No BTTS38.2%

Away & Over 2.534.5%

BTTS & Over 2.533.7%

Away & Under 2.526.3%

Away & BTTS22.6%

Draw & Under 2.518.8%

Draw & BTTS15.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Home & No BTTS9.3%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Over 2.57.6%

Home & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.568.5%

HT Over 0.567.9%

HT Away Win43.4%

2nd Half More Goals42.7%

HT Draw41.5%

HT/FT Away/Away38.4%

HT Under 0.532.1%

HT Over 1.531.5%

1st Half More Goals30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.9%

HT Both Teams Score16.0%

HT Home Win15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.0%

HT/FT Home/Home8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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