Italy · Serie A

Napoli vs AS Roma

Full time · 3:3

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Napoli 33.2% Draw 30.2% AS Roma 36.6%

Over 2.5 - 67% BTTS - 54%

✓ Pick was correct (3:3)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

W L L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

AS Roma

W W L D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Napoli 2wins ·3 draws ·AS Roma 0wins

Napoli 2-2 AS RomaFeb 15, 2026

Napoli 1-0 AS RomaNov 30, 2025

Napoli 1-1 AS RomaFeb 2, 2025

Napoli 1-0 AS RomaNov 24, 2024

Napoli 2-2 AS RomaApr 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win33.2%

Draw30.2%

AS Roma win36.6%

Over 1.5 goals62.3%

Over 2.5 goals67.3%

Over 3.5 goals16.2%

Both teams to score54.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.2%

Under 5.5 Goals

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)83.5%

Home or Away (12)79.8%

Draw No Bet - Away79.4%

Away Win63.4%

Both Halves Over 0.561.0%

Goal in Both Halves61.0%

Home or Draw (1X)36.6%

Draw No Bet - Home20.6%

Draw20.1%

Home Win16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal14.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals90.9%

Over 1.5 Goals81.1%

Under 4.5 Goals80.4%

Under 3.5 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.2%

1-3 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.3%

Under 2.5 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals36.8%

4+ Goals36.8%

1-2 Goals36.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals18.9%

Over 5.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.7%

Home Team to Score62.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.6%

Away Clean Sheet37.9%

Away Win to Nil33.3%

Home Clean Sheet12.2%

Home Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 0.562.0%

Away Over 1.562.0%

Home Exactly 037.9%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Over 2.535.0%

Away 3+ Goals35.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.7%

Home Over 1.525.3%

Home Exactly 217.8%

Away Exactly 012.2%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)63.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home60.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)36.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home36.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.7%

Away to win by 123.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.4%

Away to win by 3+20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 219.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 110.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 24.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.5%

Home to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.0%

Away & Over 2.543.4%

Away & No BTTS33.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.3%

Away & BTTS30.1%

Away & Under 2.520.0%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.2%

Draw & Under 2.514.1%

Home & Over 2.59.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.5%

Home & BTTS8.9%

Home & No BTTS7.6%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.9%

HT Under 1.559.8%

HT Away Win46.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT/FT Away/Away41.4%

HT Over 1.540.2%

HT Draw36.6%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.1%

Equal Goals Each Half23.7%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.7%

HT Home Win16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.6%

HT/FT Home/Home9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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