Italy · Serie A

Napoli vs Bologna

Kick-off 17:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Napoli 53.8% Draw 25.1% Bologna 21.1%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Napoli: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Bologna

D L L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Napoli 1wins ·1 draws ·Bologna 3wins

Napoli 2-3 BolognaMay 11, 2026

Napoli 0-2 BolognaNov 9, 2025

Napoli 1-1 BolognaApr 7, 2025

Napoli 3-0 BolognaAug 25, 2024

Napoli 0-2 BolognaMay 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win53.8%

Draw25.1%

Bologna win21.1%

Over 1.5 goals71.2%

Over 2.5 goals64.7%

Over 3.5 goals24.1%

Both teams to score64.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.1%

Home or Draw (1X)70.3%

Draw No Bet - Home60.9%

Both Halves Over 0.559.5%

Goal in Both Halves59.5%

Draw or Away (X2)53.6%

Home Win46.4%

Draw No Bet - Away39.1%

Away Win29.7%

Draw23.9%

Exactly 1 Goal15.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.9%

Under 5.5 Goals91.8%

Under 4.5 Goals81.8%

Over 1.5 Goals79.8%

Under 3.5 Goals65.1%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals60.1%

Over 2.5 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.9%

Under 2.5 Goals42.7%

3-4 Goals39.1%

1-2 Goals37.7%

Over 3.5 Goals34.9%

4+ Goals34.9%

Exactly 2 Goals22.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.2%

Over 4.5 Goals18.2%

Over 5.5 Goals8.2%

Under 0.5 Goals5.1%

Exactly 0 Goals5.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.4%

Away Team to Score72.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.8%

Home Clean Sheet27.2%

Home Win to Nil22.2%

Away Clean Sheet18.6%

Away Win to Nil13.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.4%

Away Over 0.572.8%

Home Over 1.550.1%

Away Over 1.537.3%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Home Exactly 131.3%

Away Exactly 027.2%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Over 2.523.8%

Home 3+ Goals23.8%

Away Exactly 223.0%

Home Exactly 018.6%

Away Over 2.514.3%

Away 3+ Goals14.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 214.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.4%

Home to win by 3+10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 28.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.6%

Home & Over 2.530.7%

Home & BTTS24.2%

Home & No BTTS22.2%

Away & Over 2.518.8%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Draw & Under 2.516.2%

Away & BTTS16.2%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Away & No BTTS13.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.1%

Away & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.9%

HT Under 1.561.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.5%

HT Draw39.1%

HT Over 1.538.8%

HT Home Win35.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home28.4%

HT Under 0.526.1%

HT Away Win25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half24.1%

HT Both Teams Score23.5%

HT/FT Away/Away17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions