Italy · Serie A

Napoli vs Como

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Napoli 39.6% Draw 28.9% Como 31.6%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 13.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Como: 13 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.2%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

W W W L D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Como

D W W W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 4

Napoli 1wins ·2 draws ·Como 1wins

Napoli 0-0 ComoMay 2, 2026

Napoli 0-0 ComoNov 1, 2025

Napoli 1-2 ComoFeb 23, 2025

Napoli 3-1 ComoOct 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win39.6%

Draw28.9%

Como win31.6%

Over 1.5 goals66.6%

Over 2.5 goals48.7%

Over 3.5 goals19.6%

Both teams to score54.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.4%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

86.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)71.8%

Home or Draw (1X)65.6%

Draw or Away (X2)62.7%

Draw No Bet - Home52.0%

Draw No Bet - Away48.0%

Both Halves Over 0.546.6%

Goal in Both Halves46.6%

Home Win37.3%

Away Win34.4%

Draw28.2%

Exactly 1 Goal22.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.9%

Under 4.5 Goals91.4%

Over 0.5 Goals90.1%

Under 3.5 Goals79.6%

1-3 Goals69.8%

Over 1.5 Goals67.3%

Under 2.5 Goals59.2%

2-4 Goals58.7%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals49.3%

2-3 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals40.8%

Under 1.5 Goals32.7%

3-4 Goals32.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.5%

Over 3.5 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals20.4%

4+ Goals20.4%

Under 0.5 Goals9.9%

Exactly 0 Goals9.9%

Over 4.5 Goals8.6%

Over 5.5 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score69.5%

Away Team to Score67.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)47.0%

Home Clean Sheet32.4%

Away Clean Sheet30.5%

Home Win to Nil22.5%

Away Win to Nil20.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.569.5%

Away Over 0.567.6%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.3%

Away Exactly 032.4%

Away Over 1.531.1%

Home Exactly 030.5%

Home Exactly 221.5%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Over 2.511.8%

Home 3+ Goals11.8%

Away Over 2.510.5%

Away 3+ Goals10.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.5%

Away to win by 120.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 210.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 29.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.0%

BTTS & Over 2.533.8%

Draw & Under 2.523.1%

Home & No BTTS22.5%

Away & No BTTS20.6%

Home & Under 2.518.7%

Home & Over 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Away & Under 2.517.4%

Away & Over 2.517.0%

Home & BTTS14.8%

Away & BTTS13.8%

BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.0%

HT Over 0.564.7%

HT Draw45.5%

2nd Half More Goals41.7%

HT Under 0.535.3%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

HT Home Win28.1%

HT Over 1.528.0%

Equal Goals Each Half28.0%

HT Away Win26.4%

HT/FT Home/Home21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.4%

HT Both Teams Score16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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