Italy · Serie A

Napoli vs Frosinone

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Napoli 49.9% Draw 27.4% Frosinone 22.7%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

D W L L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Frosinone

W D W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:4 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 2

Napoli 1wins ·1 draws ·Frosinone 0wins

Napoli 2-2 FrosinoneApr 14, 2024

Napoli 3-1 FrosinoneAug 19, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win49.9%

Draw27.4%

Frosinone win22.7%

Over 1.5 goals65.9%

Over 2.5 goals45.4%

Over 3.5 goals19.1%

Both teams to score45.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.0%

Draw or Away (X2)67.8%

Both Halves Over 0.560.2%

Goal in Both Halves60.2%

Draw No Bet - Away57.7%

Home or Draw (1X)56.2%

Away Win43.8%

Draw No Bet - Home42.3%

Home Win32.2%

Draw24.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals81.2%

Over 1.5 Goals80.4%

Under 3.5 Goals64.3%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.4%

Over 2.5 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.7%

Under 2.5 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals39.3%

1-2 Goals37.0%

Over 3.5 Goals35.7%

4+ Goals35.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.6%

Over 4.5 Goals18.8%

Over 5.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.7%

Home Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.7%

Away Clean Sheet25.3%

Away Win to Nil20.4%

Home Clean Sheet19.3%

Home Win to Nil14.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.7%

Home Over 0.574.7%

Away Over 1.548.9%

Home Over 1.540.0%

Home Exactly 134.8%

Away Exactly 131.8%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 025.3%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Over 2.522.8%

Away 3+ Goals22.8%

Away Exactly 019.3%

Home Over 2.516.1%

Home 3+ Goals16.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.2%

Away to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.2%

Away to win by 213.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.4%

Away to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.3%

Home to win by 29.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.1%

Home to win by 3+5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.9%

Away & Over 2.529.2%

Away & BTTS23.5%

Home & Over 2.520.8%

Away & No BTTS20.4%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Home & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Under 2.515.9%

Away & Under 2.514.6%

Home & No BTTS14.5%

Home & Under 2.511.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.3%

HT Under 1.560.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT Over 1.539.4%

HT Draw38.9%

HT Away Win34.2%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Home Win26.9%

HT/FT Away/Away26.7%

HT Under 0.525.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half23.9%

HT/FT Home/Home18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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