Italy · Serie A

Napoli vs Lazio

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Napoli 46.4% Draw 27.0% Lazio 26.6%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lazio: 7 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Napoli

L L W D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 12:14 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.33

Lazio

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 18:5 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Napoli 1wins ·2 draws ·Lazio 2wins

Napoli 0-2 LazioApr 18, 2026

Napoli 2-0 LazioJan 4, 2026

Napoli 2-2 LazioFeb 15, 2025

Napoli 0-1 LazioDec 8, 2024

Napoli 0-0 LazioJan 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Napoli win46.4%

Draw27.0%

Lazio win26.6%

Over 1.5 goals69.1%

Over 2.5 goals93.8%

Over 3.5 goals22.0%

Both teams to score82.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

90.3%

HT Over 0.5

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Draw or Away (X2)85.0%

Draw No Bet - Away83.0%

Both Halves Over 0.580.7%

Goal in Both Halves80.7%

Away Win70.6%

Home or Draw (1X)28.8%

Draw No Bet - Home17.0%

Home Win14.5%

Draw14.3%

Exactly 1 Goal4.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals83.5%

Under 5.5 Goals68.6%

Over 3.5 Goals67.4%

4+ Goals67.4%

Under 4.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals48.7%

2-4 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals34.8%

Under 3.5 Goals32.6%

Over 5.5 Goals31.4%

1-3 Goals31.1%

2-3 Goals26.6%

Under 2.5 Goals16.5%

Exactly 3 Goals16.1%

1-2 Goals15.0%

Exactly 2 Goals10.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.3%

Home Team to Score76.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.8%

Away Clean Sheet23.1%

Away Win to Nil22.1%

Home Clean Sheet4.2%

Home Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.3%

Away Over 1.581.9%

Home Over 0.576.4%

Away Over 2.560.8%

Away 3+ Goals60.8%

Home Over 1.542.7%

Home Exactly 133.7%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 023.1%

Away Exactly 221.1%

Home Over 2.518.1%

Home 3+ Goals18.1%

Away Exactly 113.3%

Away Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home65.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away52.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home47.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.7%

Away to win by 3+33.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

Away to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.5%

Home to win by 18.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.0%

Home to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.7%

Away & Over 2.562.6%

Away & BTTS48.5%

Away & No BTTS22.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.9%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

Home & Over 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

Home & BTTS11.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.54.5%

Home & No BTTS3.2%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.6%

HT Over 1.561.6%

HT Away Win55.7%

HT/FT Away/Away50.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Under 1.538.4%

HT Both Teams Score36.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.7%

HT Home Win17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.2%

HT Under 0.512.4%

HT/FT Home/Home8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions