USA · Major League Soccer

Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew

Full time · 3:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

Nashville SC 88.9% Draw 7.6% Columbus Crew 3.5%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 59%

✓ Pick was correct (3:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Nashville SC: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Nashville SC

W D L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Columbus Crew

L L D W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nashville SC win88.9%

Draw7.6%

Columbus Crew win3.5%

Over 1.5 goals96.2%

Over 2.5 goals87.3%

Over 3.5 goals72.9%

Both teams to score59.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.8%

HT Over 0.5

89.5%

Home Over 1.5

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.8%

Home or Draw (1X)93.8%

Home or Away (12)90.8%

Home Win87.0%

Both Halves Over 0.583.8%

Goal in Both Halves83.8%

Draw or Away (X2)10.5%

Draw6.7%

Draw No Bet - Away4.2%

Away Win3.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals85.2%

Over 3.5 Goals71.2%

4+ Goals71.2%

Under 5.5 Goals63.9%

Over 4.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even48.9%

Total Goals Odd48.7%

Under 4.5 Goals46.4%

2-4 Goals39.9%

Over 5.5 Goals36.1%

3-4 Goals31.5%

Under 3.5 Goals28.8%

1-3 Goals25.7%

2-3 Goals22.4%

Under 2.5 Goals14.8%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

1-2 Goals11.7%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score58.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.6%

Home Clean Sheet39.2%

Home Win to Nil38.5%

Away Clean Sheet1.7%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.589.1%

Home Over 2.575.1%

Home 3+ Goals75.1%

Away Over 0.558.4%

Away Exactly 039.2%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Away Over 1.522.6%

Away Exactly 216.3%

Home Exactly 214.0%

Home Exactly 16.8%

Away Over 2.56.3%

Away 3+ Goals6.3%

Home Exactly 01.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home74.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away73.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.0%

Home to win by 3+58.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away57.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away39.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home24.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 216.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 12.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.7%

BTTS & Over 2.554.9%

Home & BTTS48.5%

Home & No BTTS38.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Home & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.2%

Away & Over 2.52.9%

Away & BTTS2.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.5%

HT Home Win72.4%

HT/FT Home/Home70.2%

HT Over 1.565.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Under 1.534.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score28.3%

HT Draw20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.510.5%

HT Away Win7.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Away2.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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