USA · Major League Soccer

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

● LIVE 64' · 4:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Nashville SC 88.2% Draw 7.4% Sporting Kansas City 4.4%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Nashville SC: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Nashville SC

W W W D L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:5 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.83

Sporting Kansas City

D L W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 15:14 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nashville SC win88.2%

Draw7.4%

Sporting Kansas City win4.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals91.9%

Over 3.5 goals81.1%

Both teams to score68.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.0%

Home or Draw (1X)91.5%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.588.2%

Goal in Both Halves88.2%

Home Win84.9%

Draw or Away (X2)11.0%

Draw6.6%

Draw No Bet - Away5.0%

Away Win4.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals88.2%

Over 3.5 Goals77.8%

4+ Goals77.8%

Over 4.5 Goals63.0%

Under 5.5 Goals53.8%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals46.2%

Under 4.5 Goals37.0%

2-4 Goals30.7%

3-4 Goals25.2%

Under 3.5 Goals22.2%

1-3 Goals17.8%

2-3 Goals15.9%

Under 2.5 Goals11.8%

Exactly 3 Goals10.4%

1-2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score66.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.2%

Home Clean Sheet29.4%

Home Win to Nil29.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.566.6%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Away Over 1.531.8%

Away Exactly 029.4%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Away Over 2.511.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away 3+ Goals11.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.1%

Home to win by 3+58.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)54.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away54.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home41.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away37.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.3%

Home to win by 111.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 13.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.1%

Away to win by 21.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.0%

BTTS & Over 2.564.0%

Home & BTTS55.9%

Home & No BTTS29.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.2%

Draw & BTTS6.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Home & Under 2.55.0%

Draw & Over 2.54.4%

Away & Over 2.53.8%

Away & BTTS3.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Home Win72.7%

HT Over 1.572.4%

HT/FT Home/Home70.1%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT Both Teams Score35.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.6%

HT Draw18.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win8.6%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners92.8%

Under 10.5 Corners87.3%

Under 9.5 Corners79.1%

Under 8.5 Corners67.9%

Home Most Corners66.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Over 8.5 Corners32.1%

Away Most Corners21.4%

Over 9.5 Corners20.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners16.4%

Over 10.5 Corners12.7%

Over 11.5 Corners7.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards85.8%

Under 4.5 Cards72.5%

Over 2.5 Cards67.9%

Under 3.5 Cards53.7%

Over 3.5 Cards46.3%

Under 2.5 Cards32.1%

Over 4.5 Cards27.5%

Over 5.5 Cards14.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions