Netherlands · Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

Kick-off 17:45 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

NEC Nijmegen 57.5% Draw 22.3% Excelsior 20.1%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Excelsior: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

NEC Nijmegen

L W L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Excelsior

W W L W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

NEC Nijmegen 4wins ·0 draws ·Excelsior 1wins

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 ExcelsiorApr 4, 2026

NEC Nijmegen 5-0 ExcelsiorAug 9, 2025

NEC Nijmegen 3-0 ExcelsiorMay 6, 2024

NEC Nijmegen 3-4 ExcelsiorAug 13, 2023

NEC Nijmegen 3-0 ExcelsiorFeb 19, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen win57.5%

Draw22.3%

Excelsior win20.1%

Over 1.5 goals86.3%

Over 2.5 goals95.5%

Over 3.5 goals44.2%

Both teams to score85.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.5%

Home Team to Score

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.1%

Goal in Both Halves87.1%

Home or Away (12)83.1%

Draw or Away (X2)72.7%

Draw No Bet - Away67.9%

Away Win56.5%

Home or Draw (1X)42.9%

Draw No Bet - Home32.1%

Home Win26.6%

Draw16.2%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.5%

Over 3.5 Goals79.2%

4+ Goals79.2%

Over 4.5 Goals63.6%

Under 5.5 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals46.5%

Under 4.5 Goals36.4%

2-4 Goals33.1%

3-4 Goals26.9%

Under 3.5 Goals20.8%

1-3 Goals19.8%

2-3 Goals17.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

Under 2.5 Goals9.5%

1-2 Goals8.4%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.3%

Home Team to Score89.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.4%

Away Clean Sheet10.1%

Away Win to Nil9.7%

Home Clean Sheet4.0%

Home Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 0.589.2%

Away Over 1.582.5%

Home Over 1.566.1%

Away Over 2.561.7%

Away 3+ Goals61.7%

Home Over 2.539.6%

Home 3+ Goals39.6%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 123.1%

Away Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 112.9%

Home Exactly 010.1%

Away Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home86.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home75.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home60.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)42.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home42.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.8%

Away to win by 3+23.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 215.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 112.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 27.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.6%

Home to win by 3+6.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.6%

Away & Over 2.553.0%

Away & BTTS46.7%

Home & Over 2.524.6%

Home & BTTS23.0%

Draw & BTTS15.8%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

Away & No BTTS9.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Home & No BTTS3.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Over 1.570.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

HT Both Teams Score49.1%

HT Away Win46.8%

HT/FT Away/Away38.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.2%

HT Home Win26.8%

HT Draw26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Home/Home16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.1%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Home/Away5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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