Netherlands · Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

Kick-off 19:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

NEC Nijmegen 60.8% Draw 21.7% Fortuna Sittard 17.5%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

92%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fortuna Sittard: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

NEC Nijmegen

D D L D L W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Fortuna Sittard

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

NEC Nijmegen 2wins ·1 draws ·Fortuna Sittard 2wins

NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna SittardFeb 28, 2026

NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna SittardAug 31, 2025

NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna SittardJan 19, 2025

NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Fortuna SittardAug 31, 2024

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Fortuna SittardApr 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen win60.8%

Draw21.7%

Fortuna Sittard win17.5%

Over 1.5 goals86.7%

Over 2.5 goals95.0%

Over 3.5 goals44.7%

Both teams to score91.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.5%

Goal in Both Halves87.5%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home or Draw (1X)58.8%

Draw or Away (X2)58.1%

Draw No Bet - Home50.4%

Draw No Bet - Away49.6%

Home Win41.4%

Away Win40.8%

Draw17.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.2%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals91.1%

Over 3.5 Goals80.0%

4+ Goals80.0%

Over 4.5 Goals64.7%

Under 5.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals47.7%

Under 4.5 Goals35.3%

2-4 Goals32.3%

3-4 Goals26.4%

Under 3.5 Goals20.0%

1-3 Goals19.1%

2-3 Goals17.0%

Exactly 3 Goals11.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.9%

1-2 Goals8.1%

Exactly 2 Goals6.0%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals0.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.4%

Away Team to Score93.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.5%

Home Clean Sheet6.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Home Win to Nil5.9%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.4%

Away Over 0.593.3%

Home Over 1.576.3%

Away Over 1.576.0%

Home Over 2.552.5%

Home 3+ Goals52.5%

Away Over 2.552.0%

Away 3+ Goals52.0%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 117.3%

Home Exactly 117.1%

Away Exactly 06.3%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 115.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.9%

Home to win by 3+13.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.5%

Away to win by 3+13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 211.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.6%

Home & Over 2.538.9%

Away & Over 2.538.2%

Home & BTTS35.6%

Away & BTTS35.0%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.5%

Home & No BTTS5.9%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.8%

HT Over 1.571.3%

HT Both Teams Score50.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Home Win36.7%

HT Away Win36.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.7%

HT Draw27.0%

HT/FT Home/Home26.7%

HT/FT Away/Away26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.2%

HT Under 0.58.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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