Netherlands · Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

Full time · 2:2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

NEC Nijmegen 51.0% Draw 24.1% Groningen 24.9%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 96%

✓ Pick was correct (2:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Groningen: 4 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

NEC Nijmegen

D D D L D L

Form 0-4-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Groningen

L W W D D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 15:12 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

NEC Nijmegen 3wins ·0 draws ·Groningen 2wins

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 GroningenMay 10, 2026

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 GroningenNov 9, 2025

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 GroningenFeb 8, 2025

NEC Nijmegen 6-0 GroningenNov 3, 2024

NEC Nijmegen 1-0 GroningenApr 25, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen win51.0%

Draw24.1%

Groningen win24.9%

Over 1.5 goals86.0%

Over 2.5 goals98.4%

Over 3.5 goals43.2%

Both teams to score95.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.4%

Goal in Both Halves

90.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.4%

Goal in Both Halves90.4%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)62.6%

Draw No Bet - Away55.9%

Home or Draw (1X)52.9%

Away Win46.2%

Draw No Bet - Home44.1%

Home Win36.5%

Draw16.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.5%

Over 2.5 Goals93.4%

Over 3.5 Goals85.0%

4+ Goals85.0%

Over 4.5 Goals72.1%

Over 5.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals43.6%

Under 4.5 Goals27.9%

2-4 Goals25.4%

3-4 Goals21.3%

Under 3.5 Goals15.0%

1-3 Goals13.9%

2-3 Goals12.6%

Exactly 3 Goals8.4%

Under 2.5 Goals6.6%

1-2 Goals5.5%

Exactly 2 Goals4.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score93.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.1%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Home Clean Sheet4.0%

Home Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 0.593.6%

Away Over 1.582.3%

Home Over 1.577.7%

Away Over 2.561.6%

Away 3+ Goals61.6%

Home Over 2.554.7%

Home 3+ Goals54.7%

Home Exactly 223.0%

Away Exactly 220.7%

Home Exactly 115.9%

Away Exactly 112.9%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Away Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)46.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away30.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.8%

Away to win by 3+17.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 115.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 212.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.0%

Home to win by 3+12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 210.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.8%

Away & Over 2.544.4%

Away & BTTS41.0%

Home & Over 2.534.9%

Home & BTTS32.7%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Home & No BTTS3.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Home & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.6%

HT Over 1.576.1%

HT Both Teams Score55.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT Away Win40.5%

HT Home Win34.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away30.7%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Under 1.523.9%

HT/FT Home/Home23.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.9%

HT Under 0.56.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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