UEFA Europa League

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

NEC Nijmegen 42.1% Draw 21.0% Levski Sofia 36.9%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Levski Sofia: 6 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

NEC Nijmegen

D D L D L W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Levski Sofia

L D W W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen win42.1%

Draw21.0%

Levski Sofia win36.9%

Over 1.5 goals94.4%

Over 2.5 goals82.0%

Over 3.5 goals64.8%

Both teams to score80.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.0%

Home Team to Score

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.579.0%

Goal in Both Halves79.0%

Home or Draw (1X)62.3%

Draw or Away (X2)57.1%

Draw No Bet - Home53.3%

Draw No Bet - Away46.7%

Home Win42.8%

Away Win37.6%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals81.9%

Under 5.5 Goals71.3%

Over 3.5 Goals64.7%

4+ Goals64.7%

Under 4.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals47.9%

Over 4.5 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Under 3.5 Goals35.3%

1-3 Goals34.0%

2-3 Goals28.8%

Over 5.5 Goals28.7%

Under 2.5 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

1-2 Goals16.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.8%

Away Team to Score88.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.7%

Home Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Win to Nil10.5%

Away Clean Sheet10.1%

Away Win to Nil8.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.8%

Away Over 0.588.3%

Home Over 1.566.7%

Away Over 1.563.2%

Home Over 2.540.2%

Home 3+ Goals40.2%

Away Over 2.536.3%

Away 3+ Goals36.3%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 125.0%

Home Exactly 123.1%

Away Exactly 011.6%

Home Exactly 010.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.5%

Home to win by 3+12.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.1%

Away to win by 211.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.9%

Away to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.6%

Home & Over 2.537.0%

Home & BTTS32.4%

Away & Over 2.532.3%

Away & BTTS28.7%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

Home & No BTTS10.5%

Away & No BTTS8.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & Under 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.5%

HT Over 1.559.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.6%

HT Both Teams Score39.9%

HT Home Win36.3%

HT Away Win32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.8%

HT/FT Home/Home27.1%

HT/FT Away/Away23.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT Under 0.513.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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