UEFA Champions League

NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Kick-off 18:30 · Tue, Aug 11

📊 Our Prediction

Draw

61% confidence

NEC Nijmegen 21.0% Draw 61.0% Olympiakos Piraeus 18.0%

Over 2.5 - 3% BTTS - 8%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw

High draw probability

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 29%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

No Both Teams Score (NG)

Low BTTS rate

80%

Under 1.5 Goals

Low goal expectation

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

NEC Nijmegen and Olympiakos Piraeus have a significant form gap, with NEC Nijmegen having more recent matches. NEC Nijmegen's attacking threat is moderate, while Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive strength is high. The H2H significance is low due to only one previous match. The key player impact is minimal in this match.

💡

Top Tip

Draw is the most likely outcome due to the high draw probability and low goal expectation

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The model gives the draw a 61% chance and rates the two teams only 3.0 percentage points apart for an outright win.

High draw probability

Numbers behind this Draw

Draw probability

61%

Model chance of a level finish

Win-probability gap

Smaller gap means a more even matchup

Bookmaker implied chance

29%

Market does not fully agree

NEC Nijmegen

L D W L D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Olympiakos Piraeus

Form 0-1-0 Goals 0:0 Scored/game 0 Conceded/game 0

Head to head · last 1

NEC Nijmegen 0wins ·1 draws ·Olympiakos Piraeus 0wins

NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Olympiakos PiraeusAug 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen win21.0%

Draw61.0%

Olympiakos Piraeus win18.0%

Over 1.5 goals13.6%

Over 2.5 goals2.8%

Over 3.5 goals0.4%

Both teams to score7.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 1.5 Goals

87.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

80.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

80.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.3%

Draw or Away (X2)78.7%

Draw59.0%

Draw No Bet - Home52.1%

Draw No Bet - Away47.9%

Home or Away (12)41.0%

Exactly 1 Goal33.4%

Home Win21.3%

Away Win19.7%

Both Halves Over 0.57.1%

Goal in Both Halves7.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 4.5 Goals100.0%

Under 5.5 Goals100.0%

Under 3.5 Goals99.6%

Under 2.5 Goals97.5%

Under 1.5 Goals87.1%

Total Goals Even64.4%

Under 0.5 Goals53.7%

Exactly 0 Goals53.7%

Over 0.5 Goals46.3%

1-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals43.8%

Total Goals Odd35.6%

Over 1.5 Goals12.9%

2-4 Goals12.9%

2-3 Goals12.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.4%

Over 2.5 Goals2.5%

3-4 Goals2.5%

Exactly 3 Goals2.2%

Over 3.5 Goals0.4%

4+ Goals0.4%

Over 4.5 Goals0.0%

Over 5.5 Goals0.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)92.9%

Home Clean Sheet74.1%

Away Clean Sheet72.5%

Home Team to Score27.5%

Away Team to Score25.9%

Home Win to Nil20.4%

Away Win to Nil18.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)7.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 074.1%

Home Exactly 072.5%

Home Over 0.527.5%

Away Over 0.525.9%

Home Exactly 123.3%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Over 1.54.2%

Home Exactly 23.8%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away78.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.9%

Away to win by 116.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.9%

Home to win by 22.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.592.3%

Draw & Under 2.558.9%

Home & No BTTS20.4%

Home & Under 2.520.1%

Away & No BTTS18.8%

Away & Under 2.518.5%

Draw & BTTS5.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

BTTS & Over 2.51.9%

Home & Over 2.51.3%

Away & Over 2.51.1%

Home & BTTS0.9%

Away & BTTS0.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.50.6%

Draw & Over 2.50.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.596.7%

HT Draw77.1%

HT Under 0.575.6%

Equal Goals Each Half59.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw56.4%

HT Over 0.524.4%

2nd Half More Goals22.9%

1st Half More Goals18.1%

HT Home Win11.9%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Home/Home10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.0%

HT/FT Away/Away9.6%

HT Over 1.53.3%

HT Both Teams Score1.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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