Mexico · Liga MX

Necaxa vs Club America

Kick-off 04:10 · Mon, Sep 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Necaxa 24.5% Draw 16.8% Club America 58.7%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Club America: 2 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Necaxa

L D L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Club America

D L W W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Necaxa win24.5%

Draw16.8%

Club America win58.7%

Over 1.5 goals97.7%

Over 2.5 goals91.1%

Over 3.5 goals79.7%

Both teams to score86.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.4%

Under 5.5 Cards

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.1%

Goal in Both Halves87.1%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Draw or Away (X2)74.5%

Draw No Bet - Away70.3%

Away Win58.7%

Home or Draw (1X)40.6%

Draw No Bet - Home29.7%

Home Win24.7%

Draw15.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals90.4%

Over 3.5 Goals79.1%

4+ Goals79.1%

Over 4.5 Goals63.5%

Under 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals36.5%

2-4 Goals33.1%

3-4 Goals26.9%

Under 3.5 Goals20.9%

1-3 Goals19.8%

2-3 Goals17.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

Under 2.5 Goals9.6%

1-2 Goals8.4%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.5%

Home Team to Score88.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.9%

Away Clean Sheet10.8%

Away Win to Nil10.4%

Home Clean Sheet3.7%

Home Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 0.588.4%

Away Over 1.583.2%

Home Over 1.564.4%

Away Over 2.563.1%

Away 3+ Goals63.1%

Home Over 2.537.8%

Home 3+ Goals37.8%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 124.0%

Away Exactly 220.2%

Away Exactly 112.3%

Home Exactly 010.8%

Away Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home73.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home58.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away41.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home40.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away25.6%

Away to win by 3+25.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.7%

Away to win by 215.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 111.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.1%

Home to win by 27.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.9%

Home to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.1%

Away & Over 2.555.1%

Away & BTTS48.2%

Home & Over 2.522.8%

Home & BTTS21.4%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Draw & Over 2.512.5%

Away & No BTTS10.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

Home & No BTTS3.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Over 1.570.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

HT Both Teams Score48.7%

HT Away Win48.3%

HT/FT Away/Away40.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.2%

HT Draw26.2%

HT Home Win25.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Home/Home15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Home/Away5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners76.1%

Under 10.5 Corners65.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners60.2%

Over 8.5 Corners59.8%

Home Most Corners57.4%

Under 9.5 Corners53.3%

Over 9.5 Corners46.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners40.4%

Under 8.5 Corners40.2%

Over 10.5 Corners34.4%

Away Most Corners30.1%

Over 11.5 Corners23.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards90.3%

Under 4.5 Cards79.4%

Under 3.5 Cards61.9%

Over 2.5 Cards60.4%

Under 2.5 Cards39.6%

Over 3.5 Cards38.1%

Over 4.5 Cards20.6%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.5%

Over 5.5 Cards9.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions