Mexico · Liga MX

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

Full time · 1:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Necaxa 41.6% Draw 19.0% Cruz Azul 39.4%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 86%

✓ Pick was correct (1:3)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruz Azul: 7 points versus 9 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.07 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Necaxa

D L L W W

Form 2-1-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1.6

Cruz Azul

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Necaxa win41.6%

Draw19.0%

Cruz Azul win39.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.0%

Over 2.5 goals89.0%

Over 3.5 goals76.0%

Both teams to score86.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

92.0%

Away Over 0.5

92.0%

HT Over 0.5

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.1%

Goal in Both Halves85.1%

Home or Away (12)81.7%

Home or Draw (1X)60.0%

Draw or Away (X2)57.7%

Draw No Bet - Home51.4%

Draw No Bet - Away48.6%

Home Win42.0%

Away Win39.7%

Draw18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals88.7%

Over 3.5 Goals75.7%

4+ Goals75.7%

Over 4.5 Goals58.9%

Under 5.5 Goals58.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 5.5 Goals41.4%

Under 4.5 Goals41.1%

2-4 Goals37.4%

3-4 Goals29.9%

Under 3.5 Goals24.3%

1-3 Goals23.4%

2-3 Goals20.5%

Exactly 3 Goals13.0%

Under 2.5 Goals11.3%

1-2 Goals10.4%

Exactly 2 Goals7.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.5%

Away Team to Score92.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.7%

Home Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Clean Sheet7.2%

Home Win to Nil7.2%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 0.592.0%

Home Over 1.573.5%

Away Over 1.572.2%

Home Over 2.548.6%

Home 3+ Goals48.6%

Away Over 2.546.9%

Away 3+ Goals46.9%

Away Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 224.9%

Away Exactly 119.8%

Home Exactly 119.0%

Away Exactly 07.7%

Home Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 116.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.6%

Home to win by 3+13.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.3%

Away to win by 3+12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.5%

Away to win by 211.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.6%

Home & Over 2.538.6%

Away & Over 2.536.5%

Home & BTTS34.8%

Away & BTTS33.1%

Draw & BTTS17.4%

Draw & Over 2.513.7%

Home & No BTTS7.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Draw & Under 2.54.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Home & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.3%

HT Over 1.567.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Both Teams Score47.4%

HT Home Win36.7%

HT Away Win35.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.3%

HT Draw28.1%

HT/FT Home/Home26.9%

HT/FT Away/Away25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.3%

HT Under 0.59.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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