Mexico · Liga MX

Necaxa vs Leon

Full time · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Necaxa 56.2% Draw 20.2% Leon 23.6%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 76%

✓ Pick was correct (1:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Necaxa: 6 points versus 3 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Necaxa

L W W

Form 2-0-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Leon

W L L

Form 1-0-2 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Necaxa win56.2%

Draw20.2%

Leon win23.6%

Over 1.5 goals93.1%

Over 2.5 goals79.2%

Over 3.5 goals60.8%

Both teams to score75.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Both Halves Over 0.576.7%

Goal in Both Halves76.7%

Home or Draw (1X)75.4%

Draw No Bet - Home70.0%

Home Win56.9%

Draw or Away (X2)42.9%

Draw No Bet - Away30.0%

Away Win24.4%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal6.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.2%

Over 2.5 Goals79.1%

Under 5.5 Goals75.1%

Over 3.5 Goals60.7%

4+ Goals60.7%

Under 4.5 Goals58.7%

2-4 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals41.3%

Under 3.5 Goals39.3%

3-4 Goals37.8%

1-3 Goals37.7%

2-3 Goals31.5%

Over 5.5 Goals24.9%

Under 2.5 Goals20.9%

1-2 Goals19.3%

Exactly 3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 2 Goals13.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.1%

Away Team to Score81.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.3%

Home Clean Sheet18.9%

Home Win to Nil17.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.8%

Away Win to Nil6.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.1%

Away Over 0.581.0%

Home Over 1.572.3%

Away Over 1.549.6%

Home Over 2.546.9%

Home 3+ Goals46.9%

Away Exactly 131.4%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Over 2.523.4%

Away 3+ Goals23.4%

Home Exactly 119.8%

Away Exactly 018.9%

Home Exactly 07.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.6%

Home to win by 3+20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 119.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 27.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.5%

Home & Over 2.548.4%

Home & BTTS39.5%

Away & Over 2.519.9%

Away & BTTS18.1%

Home & No BTTS17.4%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.7%

Away & No BTTS6.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.0%

HT Over 1.556.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Home Win45.2%

HT Under 1.543.4%

HT/FT Home/Home37.6%

HT Both Teams Score36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.9%

HT Away Win23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT Under 0.515.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Away/Away14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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