Mexico · Liga MX

Necaxa vs Puebla

Full time · 0:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Necaxa 41.7% Draw 20.1% Puebla 38.2%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 83%

✓ Pick was correct (0:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Puebla: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Necaxa

D L D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Puebla

L W W D L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Necaxa win41.7%

Draw20.1%

Puebla win38.2%

Over 1.5 goals95.8%

Over 2.5 goals85.5%

Over 3.5 goals70.2%

Both teams to score83.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Cards

91.6%

Home Team to Score

91.1%

Home Over 0.5

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.582.0%

Goal in Both Halves82.0%

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Home or Draw (1X)61.1%

Draw or Away (X2)57.6%

Draw No Bet - Home52.2%

Draw No Bet - Away47.8%

Home Win42.3%

Away Win38.8%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.0%

Over 2.5 Goals85.4%

Over 3.5 Goals70.1%

4+ Goals70.1%

Under 5.5 Goals65.6%

Over 4.5 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals48.1%

2-4 Goals43.1%

Over 5.5 Goals34.4%

3-4 Goals33.5%

Under 3.5 Goals29.9%

1-3 Goals28.9%

2-3 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

Under 2.5 Goals14.6%

1-2 Goals13.6%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.1%

Away Team to Score90.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.7%

Home Clean Sheet9.6%

Home Win to Nil8.8%

Away Clean Sheet8.7%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.1%

Away Over 0.590.2%

Home Over 1.569.9%

Away Over 1.567.7%

Home Over 2.543.9%

Home 3+ Goals43.9%

Away Over 2.541.4%

Away 3+ Goals41.4%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 122.5%

Home Exactly 121.3%

Away Exactly 09.6%

Home Exactly 08.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.9%

Home to win by 3+12.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 212.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 211.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.1%

Away to win by 3+11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.6%

Home & Over 2.537.7%

Away & Over 2.534.5%

Home & BTTS33.5%

Away & BTTS30.9%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

Home & No BTTS8.8%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.8%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.4%

HT Over 1.563.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Both Teams Score43.4%

HT Under 1.536.7%

HT Home Win36.4%

HT Away Win34.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw29.5%

HT/FT Home/Home26.8%

HT/FT Away/Away24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT Under 0.511.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners94.7%

Under 10.5 Corners90.1%

Under 9.5 Corners83.0%

Under 8.5 Corners72.9%

Home Most Corners52.3%

Home Over 4.5 Corners33.9%

Away Most Corners32.8%

Over 8.5 Corners27.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners21.3%

Over 9.5 Corners17.0%

Over 10.5 Corners9.9%

Over 11.5 Corners5.3%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards91.6%

Under 4.5 Cards81.5%

Under 3.5 Cards64.7%

Over 2.5 Cards57.7%

Under 2.5 Cards42.3%

Over 3.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards18.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.0%

Over 5.5 Cards8.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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